I’ve been analyzing the election results for Philadelphia and its suburbs. It paints a picture of low Republican turnout, a gradual eroding of the Republican base over the last four years, and huge gains in Democratic registration which seems to have rather obviously helped Barack Obama.
| Votes for Party Candidates for President | Difference | |||||||
| Year | County | Democrat | Republican | Year | Democrat | Republican | Difference Dem | Difference Rep |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 542,205 | 130,099 | 2008 | 574,042 | 113,034 | 31,837 | -17,065 |
| Delaware | 162,601 | 120,425 | 179,949 | 109,766 | 17,348 | -10,659 | ||
| Bucks | 163,438 | 153,469 | 178,345 | 149,860 | 14,907 | -3609 | ||
| Montgomery | 222,048 | 175,741 | 249,493 | 163,030 | 27,445 | -12,681 | ||
| Chester | 109,708 | 120,036 | 135,150 | 112,266 | 25,442 | -7770 | ||
| Voter Registration Statistics | ||||||||
| Year | County | Democrat | Republican | Independent | Year | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 796,033 | 175,434 | 90,879 | 2008 | 799,663 | 145,387 | 86,063 |
| Delaware | 131,317 | 213,030 | 42,327 | 157,301 | 188,924 | 39,031 | ||
| Bucks | 173,803 | 208,639 | 69,513 | 185,407 | 181,701 | 60,496 | ||
| Montgomery | 214,223 | 268,755 | 81,704 | 247,881 | 237,880 | 76,187 | ||
| Chester | 98,765 | 170,419 | 55,961 | 113,315 | 146,956 | 46,598 | ||
| Registration Difference | |||
| County | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
| Philadelphia | 3,630 | -30,047 | -4,816 |
| Delaware | 25,984 | -24,106 | -3,296 |
| Bucks | 11,604 | -26,938 | -9,017 |
| Montgomery | 33,658 | -30,875 | -5,517 |
| Chester | 14,550 | -23,463 | -9,363 |
Looking at the numbers, Philadelphia actually did not have phenomenally high number of newly registered Democrats. But turnout was higher, but not much higher, than in 2004. One can also see that Republican turnout was depressed in several suburban counties, and in Philadelphia. Only Bucks managed to turn out in comparable numbers to 2004, but it wasn’t enough to sway the county. This strikes me as a group of voters who are just particularly not excited to be Republicans, and to get out to support Republican candidates. Pretty clearly, we had Republicans voting for Obama in larger numbers than we could afford.
This also shows the suburbs are bleeding Republicans. In many cases, Republicans switched registratoin to vote in the primary, but it doesn’t seem like they are planning to come back to the party, or that they voted for McCain. The GOP is in a lot of trouble in the Philadelphia suburbs, and if we don’t start getting more registered Republican voters, we’re finished as a traditional Republican stronghold. It might already be too late.
I think it was too late in 2006 when everyone decided to stick it to the Republicans.
Thanks to Acorn for this asd other ‘help’ not to mention the media!
Zeron:
I agree. I remember in ’06, word on the street was to get back at Bush by doing Dem all the way.
But by Feb ’07, that glee turned sour when the overall approval ratings for the Dem’s was just as bad as Bush.
Then in ’08, it was pure hatred for the Repub’s cause of Bush, and even Palin.
How can things turn around for ’10? or even earlier for Mayorial elections?
Maybe the Jersey Syndrome is spreading like the plague, where people complain heaven to high water about the Dem’s, yet vote straight down the lines for these same people.
If the Democrats don’t do anything overtly stupid, I have serious doubts that the Republicans can recover by ’10. But of course, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Democrats did something stupid between then. But I think for the area the Democrats have control over their destiny. And if they can keep it up for a couple of elections, then I think the Jersey Syndrome will definitely be in play in the area.
I think that part of the problem is people fleeing NJ/NY because of high taxes. So what happens when they move here? The vote for the same party that ruined their old states.
Philly is lost. Always has been. The irony is that after 50+ years of Democrat rule, the city is still a mess. And today, Nutter announced sweeping budget cuts and the closings of several fire stations.
Guess people better have their hoses hooked up all year ’round now.