Decline of the GOP

This is an excellent analysis of where the GOP stands in the Philadelphia Suburbs.  It’s not good.  Not good at all.  Bucks County, the county I live in, is now the most Republican County, and we traditionally haven’t been.  Chester County is even in trouble:

It was once one of the most Republican counties in the state.  It gave Nixon 64, 57, and 68 percent of the vote in 1960, 1968, and 1972 respectively; 61 and 70 percent to Reagan; and 67 percent to the elder Bush.  Those large margins are gone, though it was the only one of these counties to vote for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.  2008 was a historic reversal, as McCain ran 7 points behind Bush’s 2004 performance, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to lose in Chester County since 1964.

The interesting thing is, Tom Corbett, who is on the short list as a possible candidate for Governor, did very well in the suburbs.  The GOP’s losses in some formerly Republican counties, like Delaware and Montgomery, are probably not reversable.  I think Bucks and Chester counties can still be saved for the GOP, but they have to front good candidates.  As much as I like Pat Toomey, I think Corbett is a much stronger candidate for Governor in 2010, and I hope he runs.

The rest of Pennsylvania needs to be very concerned about this development, because if the Philadelphia Suburbs start voting with the city, they will dominate Pennsylvania politics like downstate New York dominates upstate.  That will not be good for a lot of the values central, and western Pennsylvanians hold dear.

UPDATE: I think this commenter pretty much has it right:

1) We must remember these counties are largely Republican bastions to this day at the local level.  Republicans control the commission/council in all four county along with a majority of the county row offices.

2) Republicans in these countries run on a different message than their national counterparts: good government.  These counties are some of the best ran in the country.  The same story can be said for local government.  Lower Merion has a local tax rate below the state average while maintaining great services and schools.  These people might be social liberals or moderates, but they are generally good government fiscal conservatives.

He goes on to suggest why the brand of Republicanism touted by people like Sarah Palin don’t go over well here.  I would actually suggest Palin could sell herself here, since I think she has strong “good government” credentials.  George W. Bush’s brand of big government conservatism was a disaster for the GOP in this area.  There was little “good” about Bush’s governance from our point of view here.  I think people here will coalition with social conservatives, but it has to be a coalition.  If the Republican Party continues being the party of big government social conservatism, the Philadelphia suburbs will be solidly Democratic within a decade.

More Hating on Kirsten Gillibrand

This time from Maureen Dowd:

So now we have an N.R.A. handmaiden in Bobby Kennedy’s old seat? Kirsten Gillibrand, a k a Tracy Flick, accepting the honor with her Republican pal Al D’Amato beside her on stage? Gross.

This is what passes for opinion these days?  Talk about catty.

Then the Democrats would have had another Kennedy in the Senate representing New York — Bobby’s niece and a smart, policy-oriented, civic-minded woman to whom the president feels deeply indebted in an era when every state has its hand out.

I just don’t know if, like, you know, Caroline Kennedy was, like, the right person, you know, to represent New York in the Senate.

Instead they have Gillibrand, who voted against the Wall Street — as in New York — bailout bill. And who introduced a bill to balance the federal budget annually, which suggests she would oppose the $825 billion in deficit spending that President Obama proposes to rescue the country, not least New York.

Like I said, I’m liking these blue dog Democrats a lot better than Republicans these days.  She’s against having my tax money go to bail out rich bankers in New York City?  I should remember to send her a Christmas card next year.

For the Condors?

Washington State is looking to ban lead shot across the board.  The hearing on the bill is today.  Why?  To save the California Condor.  The problem?

california_condor-rangemap

This is the California Condor’s established range.  Notice a problem?  Remember, it’s all about saving wildlife!  It’s not about driving up costs to stamp out a politically incorrect sport.  Not at all!

Blago’s Bonkers

I think the Illinois Governor has  pretty clearly lost his mind.  Aside from his attorney quitting because he wouldn’t listen, and odd prattle about him thwarting conspiracies to raise taxes, now he’s saying his impeachment is rigged, and is comparing himself to Nelson Mandella.

I think it might be time to fit the governor for a straitjacket before he hurts someone.

Toomey is In

Pat Toomey, who ran against Arlen Specter in his last primary and lost, has decided to throw his hat in the ring for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2010.  The other potential prospect is Attorney General Tom Corbett, who has yet to announce whether he’s going to enter the primary race to head the GOP ticket.  Toomey has strong credentials on fiscal issues, which I think the state needs right now.  He’s also good on gun rights.  I will probably be more favorable toward Corbett if he enters the race, because I think he has a stronger likelihood of winning a statewide race (since he’s already done it, in an overwhelmingly Democratic year), but that’s not because I think Toomey would be a weak candidate.

Mens Rea and the National Firearms Act

I think it’s important for gun owners to understand the National Firearms Act, and how it is applied as law by the federal courts.  Most of us here possess semi-automatic firearms, which can occasionally experience a failure mode that causes multiple shots to be fired with a single action of the trigger.  I think it’s important people know what their rights are, and how the law is applied, in case they ever find themselves in this situation.  This is from a post from Kurt Hofman yesterday:

[…] you can still be sent to prison for having a malfunctioning semi-auto, because “[i]f you pull the trigger once and it fires more than one round, no matter what the cause it’s a machine gun.” In other words, a malfunction is no excuse, according to the government.

Kurt is correct that, unfortunately, the National Firearms Act makes no provision for a firearm that malfunctions.  If it fires more than one shot with a single function of the trigger, it’s a machine gun.  You can thank Congress for poor drafting of a law that never should pass constitutional muster in the first place.  But it’s not really correct to suggest that you will go to jail if your AR doubles on you at the range in earshot of the Five-O.

The reason that’s the case is thanks to a case known as Staples v. United States, which is a case that’s remarkably similar to the Olofson case.  In Staples, The Court ruled that Congress did not eliminate the Mens Rea requirement, and that it had to be considered as applied to gun laws.  Mens Rea, translated from Latin, means ‘guilty mind’, or that the criminal had some knowledge of wrongdoing that constituted a crime.  From Staples:

We concur in the Fifth Circuit’s conclusion on this point: “It is unthinkable to us that Congress intended to subject such law abiding, well intentioned citizens to a possible ten year term of imprisonment if . . . what they genuinely and reasonably believed was a conventional semiautomatic [weapon] turns out to have worn down into or been secretly modified to be a fully automatic weapon.” Anderson, supra, at 1254. As we noted in Morissette, the “purpose and obvious effect of doing away with the requirement of a guilty intent is to ease the prosecution’s path to conviction.” 342 U. S., at 263. We are reluctant to impute that purpose to Congress where, as here, it would mean easing the path to convicting persons whose conduct would not even alert them to the probability of strict regulation in the form of a statute such as § 5861(d).

It’s important to note, however, that Staples demands that the government prove that the defendant understand the characteristics of the firearm they possess as an element of proving the crime.  It does not demand that they prove the defendent knew it was unlawful to possess an unregistered machine gun.

We attempt no definition here, either. We note only that our holding depends critically on our view that if Congress had intended to make outlaws of gun owners who were wholly ignorant of the offending characteristics of their weapons, and to subject them to lengthy prison terms, it would have spoken more clearly to that effect.

So you are not automatically guilty of possessing or transferring a machine gun if your AR doubles up on you at the range one day, provided you did not understand yourself to be in possession of a machine gun.  If such a thing happens to you, however, it would behoove you to fix it as soon as humanly possible, and not fire the weapon until it is fixed.  If you are caught and prosecuted with the firearm in the intervening time, the prosecution will have to prove you believed you were in possession of a machine gun, rather than a malfunctioning semi-auto.  If your firearm is indeed merely malfunctioning, and there’s no evidence of any attempt at conversation, which would establish your understanding of the firearm as an automatic, the government will likely fail to meet its burden.

In the transcripts for the Olofson case, you can see the government went through effort to established Mens Rea.  Here we have the prosecutor in the direct examination of Robert Kiernicki, the kid Olofson was accused of transferring the firearm to:

Q. Okay. And I’m sorry, now what did he tell you about the selector switch? First of all, did he indicate to you whether he knew that that was an automatic function?
A. Yeah, he told me that the three-round burst wouldn’t work and that it would jam up.
Q. Did you know what he meant by “three-round burst”?
A. Yeah.
Q. What did you take him to mean?
A. Three rounds come out of it when you would pull the trigger.
Q. When you pull the trigger once?
A. Yeah.
Q. And when he was telling you this, did he tell you that he had fired it automatically in that three-round burst position and that the gun had jammed on him?
A. Yes.

Kiernicki’s testimony and sworn affidavits were as big a part of the government’s case as the tests the ATF did on the firearm.  In fact, without the Kiernicki’s testimony, the government would have had a much weaker case, and would have had to rely on the M16 trigger group as evidence of a guilty mind.  I think it’s quite likely a talented defense attorney could have gotten an acquittal.

It’s something to keep in mind, because the hazard of possessing a malfunctioning AR is real.  If you go show off to your buddies “Hey look, I can make this three round burst!” even if it’s a worn part causing a hammer follow, you just established a guilty mind.  The ATF is not lenient or forgiving in its enforcement of these laws, and it has a long history of pushing court rulings to their limits, or ignoring them entirely, in attempts to get convictions.  But, in general, if your AR malfunctions and doubles, you shouldn’t be criminally liable for it if you understand that you have a malfunctioning legal semi-auto, and act accordingly.  If you do end up in legal trouble, say nothing until you speak with an attorney.  In addition, we should strive to change or repeal the laws that create this type of hazard for ordinary gun owners.

The Witches of New York

This is hilarious:

Once upon a time, there was a little State called New York.  And in this land lived a lot of witches. One day the biggest witch, Hillary Clinton announced that she was leaving and going to the White House where she could personally service the King.  That left another witch happy and wringing her hands. “Surely without Hillary I am now the fairest of all the New York reps” thought witch McCarthy.  So she went to her magic mirror and prayed, “mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the fairest New York Congress critter of them all?” As she sat there in glee waiting for the expected answer, she was almost knocked to the floor when Chucky Schumer appeared in the mirror and pronounced “why it is representative Kirsten Gillibrand of course!”

It just gets better from there.