Drove Over President Bush

Bitter and I are on our way down to Washington D.C.  On the way out of Philadelphia, President Bush was on his way in to celebrate the 7th anniversary of what he considers to be one of his greatest achievements: a massive federal intervention into education that the federal government has no business being involved with in the first place.

Either way, Bush’s motorcade was heading up northbound on I-95, as we were heading southbound.  While we were going over the upper deck of the Girard Point Bridge, his motorcade was passing under on the lower deck.  So guess you could say Bitter and I drove over Bush on the way to DC.  Sadly, we didn’t have the opportunity to back up, and drive over him again, just to be sure.

Country First Coalition

John McCain e-mailed today looking for some help:

The road was a difficult one from the outset. Yet, your faith, your support and friendship never wavered. Just as I have proudly served my country for more than half a century I am as committed as ever to helping see our mission through.

So to continue the movement, I have decided to launch a new grassroots organization called Country First.

Today, I’m asking you as a friend and supporter to renew your commitment to our common goals by becoming a Charter Member of Country First with an online contribution.

Johnny Johnny — I don’t know what you thought this was, but it basically came down to you not being Barack Obama.  You never really meant anything to me John.  Sorry, but that’s just what it was.  I never really liked ya very much, you know?

In all seriousness though, John McCain has rendered a great service to his country in his military career, and later in his political carreer, and I’ve always been impressed by his ability to come back and win when everyone else had left him for dead.  But in the big contest, when everything was on the line, he ran an awful campaign that utterly failed.  It is time for him to go gently into that good night and serve the remainder of his career as the Senior Senator from Arizona.  The GOP needs to march under fresh leadership if it’s going to move forward.

NRA on Holder

It’s worth noting that while NRA hasn’t let loose all of the grassroots force through an alert calling for specific action on Holder, they haven’t been silent.

Since he was nominated, I have received at least three stories from them via daily emails with warnings for members about Holder’s positions. They are at least educating, even if they aren’t calling for action. Elections have consequences. You can’t realistically expect the incoming President with the most anti-gun record in history to appoint pro-gun people.

Political Capital: What Is it?

No one has a hard and fixed definition of what Political Capital means.  Wikipedia has one, but it’s pretty bad.  There’s some argument as to whether it exists at all, but intuitively, we know it exists in some form, or we’d never lose at politics.  It is certainly not like capital in the financial sense, in that you can measure it concretely, buy it, sell it, invest it, or stuff it under your mattress.  But it is a way to articulate that there are limits to influencing decision making in human affairs.

So what is NRA’s political capital?  What does it have, and how does it build it?  And when does it spend it?  It’s not cut and dry, and my assessment of it would be just one of many opinions.  But I will describe briefly the sources of NRA’s political capital in order of importance:

  1. Membership – The people who belong to the organization, or are perceived as belonging to the organization.
  2. Money – You won’t get very far in Washington without this, and you won’t get this without members.
  3. Political credibility – Reputation for getting what you want, being able to help friends and punish enemies.
  4. Political alliances – Relationships with elected officials, decision makers, staffers and bureaucrats.
  5. Issue expertise – Ability to answer questions reliably and honestly about your issue when people come to you with questions.
  6. Media relationships – Ability to influence debate through media

Membership is first, because it is from membership that all other things flow.  It is the NRA’s lifeblood, because it is the source of money and votes.  The more members NRA has, the more political capital it has.  If NRA had 20 million active members, it could walk onto Capitol Hill, or the White House, and dictate terms.  No politician would dare cross NRA, because it would be guaranteed political suicide for all but a few.

Money is the second most important thing in politics, and flows from membership.  Money buys political ads, funds campaigns, pays for lobbying, and provides resources and infrastructure for political activity.

Political credibility is almost as important as money.  When a politician doesn’t do what you want, you have to be able to hurt him.  The opposite is also true, in that you have to be able to help your friends.  A sure way to do that is to deny or provide money and votes.  But credibility and reputation go hand in hand.  If you have a reputation for helping friends and hurting enemies, you will be feared, even if you might not actually be able to threaten an enemy’s position, or provide that much help to a friend.  As long as the perception is there, you have credibility, but perception has to meet reality sometimes, or you lose reputation.

Political credibility is what brings political alliances.  Politicians have to deal with near infinite interests, competing for their attention.  If you have credibility, eventually you will build relationships and will earn attention.  You will have a handful of good friends you can always rely on, and a lot of people who deal with you because it’s smart politics.  The latter will usually outnumber the former.  Keeping these relationships good is key to preserving political credibility.

Issue expertise helps build both credibility and alliances.  When you come to politicians with information, if it’s good information, and accurate information, they will view you as a resource and keep coming to you with questions.

Media relationships helps support all elements of political capital.  For some organizations, this would be right behind money in terms of importance, but NRA lives in a hostile media environment, so they can’t take advantage of this as much as other groups.  I will also say that I think NRA’s overall media game could be better than it is.

Next post on the topic, I will talk about how political capital gets built up and spent, and why it’s a limited resource.

“Hello, Sweetness”

Stephen Colbert interviews Congressman Jason Chaffetz, a freshman from Utah, and proposes a new standard for NRA ratings in the process.

Even if no gun votes come up in the next two years, I want to see NRA give Chaffetz that A+ just for being man enough to say “Hello Sweetness” to a gun.

The Holder Battle and the NRA

I would probably be remiss as a so called pragmatist if I didn’t explain my take on the political situation surrounding the Holder confirmation.  I should note that it is very important that folks contact their Senators and express their concerns about Holder, and ask them to oppose his nomination.  The reason it’s important is because it lets our representatives know we’re out here, and that we have a lot of concerns about the upcoming administration.  I also don’t think there’s any harm in NRA members calling NRA to tell them what they think.  I would welcome the NRA getting involved in trying to defeat the confirmation of Eric Holder for Attorney General, but I believe that involvement unlikely.  What I will try to explain is why this is unlikely, and why it’s not unreasonable, lazy, or cowardly for NRA to decide the upside to opposition might not be worth the downside.

It’s not unheard of for a nominee to be rejected by the Senate, but it’s rare.  Even rarer from The President’s own party.  If you look at how large the Democratic majority in The Senate is, it is extremely unlikely that Eric Holder will not be the next Attorney General, short of him being caught with a dead girl, or a live boy.  You can call me defeatist all you want, but that’s reality.  Republicans and the braver blue dogs can ask tough questions, hew and haw, and rake Holder over the coals, but they are not likely to have the votes to outright defeat his nomination.  Late in 2007, we had a similar issue with the Sullivan nomination, and I would note that the Bush Administration is now ending with Michael Sullivan still director of ATF.  He was never confirmed, because allies in the Senate put his nomination on hold, but he remains Acting Director of BATFE to this day.

The NRA is probably in the most precarious political situation it’s seen itself in since 1994.  We have the mother of all battles coming.  If you look at things from their point of view, you would look at the risk/reward equation in the following manner:

Rewards

  1. Getting the grass roots fired up over Holder, who appropriately makes a good villian.
  2. Letting politicians know NRA’s membership is not happy with Holder.
  3. Letting Holder know NRA and their membership are unhappy with his record, and are skeptical of his appointment.
  4. Pleasing membership who expects NRA to fight everything.
  5. Very remote chance of defeating the confirmation.

Risks

  1. Holder will try to get back at NRA for their public opposition to his confirmation.  NRA will be shut out from working with anyone, even friendly people who might be holdovers, in the Department of Justice for the next four years.
  2. NRA throws its political weight behind defeating Holder, is ultimately unsuccessful, and signals the Obama Administration that NRA can’t oppose it.
  3. Distracting membership from bigger fights looming on the horizon, like a new Assault Weapons Ban, Gun Show Loophole, and other gun control wish items, which might be winnable.
  4. By not getting involved, upsetting membership who wants Holder defeated.
  5. If against all odds, Holder is actually defeated, the strong likelihood Obama will nominate someone just as bad.

It’s perfectly reasonable to believe NRA should get involved with the fight against Holder, but it’s also perfectly reasonable for NRA to see a lot of risk for not much chance of benefit too.  When you and I act against Holder independently, it has no downside, because we are not creatures of DC, and don’t have to worry about perceptions of our political capital. The National Rifle Association does not have the same luxury.  They have to very carefully weigh which fights they need to wage.  There will be times when it is necessary to fight with no hope of victory, but members should ask themselves whether they’d rather have NRA go down swinging trying unsuccessfully to defeat Holder, enhancing the paper tiger meme, or whether they’d prefer NRA preserve its political capital to defeat gun control bills?

Before someone suggests, “But all we’re asking for is a membership alert,” the other things NRA doesn’t have the luxury of is half measures.  It will become known that NRA alerted its members, and NRA will incur many of the risks outlined above.  They either need to poop, or get off the pot.  This is actually an area where GOA, JPFO, Firearms Coalition, blogs, and forums can be of tremendous help, because they can speak on issues, like this, that are very risky for NRA.  Like I said, I would welcome NRA’s involvement, if they decide the risk is worth the reward, but I won’t blame them if they don’t see it that way.

Gun Range Under Fire in Indiana

It’s your typical story.  Gun club in operation for nearly half century, new homes developed, outsiders move in, complain about gun range:

Tibbs – who maintains horses on his property directly across the street from the range – says that the gunfire spooks the animals causing dangerous situations. Both expressed concern for the range being near an area with 20 homes and 22 children. Tibbs also claims that the range does not meet National Rifle Association standards for safety of such ranges.

You don’t hate horses and children, do you?

Nice Article in Connecticut Media on Gun Collecting

It’s a pretty favorable article.  If the gun was ever made, you’ll likely find people that collect it.   There’s even a Glock Collectors Association, which is a gun not many people would consider collectiable, since it’s only been around a few decades.

Guest Blogging for PAFOA

I’m doing a little guest blogging over at PAFOA, particularly on the New Jersey related issues that are at a head right now.  Aside from the fact that PAFOA’s site and forums reaches New Jersey people, keeping Miller tied up fighting for his bills in Trenton is far better than fighting him in Harrisburg.