I posted Charlie Cook’s most recent analysis of Pennsylvania over on PAGunRights this morning. Â It’s an interesting mix of green (total toss-ups), red, blue, and purple in the Keystone state this year.
Good news for the GOP: They have more solid seats up this year than Democrats. (5-4)
Good news for the GOP: The four total toss-ups (2 Congressional, 1 gubernatorial, & 1 Senate) are all currently or most recently held by Democrats, so it’s possible to make huge pick-ups.
Good news for Dems: They have more “likely” seats. (2-1) Â As in, those races are still competitive, but they still lean more favorably in the incumbent’s favor.
Questionable news for Dems: They have more “lean” seats. (4-1) Â On one hand, you can argue that these seats are good for them, because they are leaning Democratic. Â On the other hand, the direction they are headed is toward the toss-up category, and all of their guys are incumbents.
In our backyard, it’s good to see Patrick Murphy in the danger zone marked “lean.” Â On the other hand, I’m just not feeling it on the ground. Â I don’t know of anyone who is enthusiastic about the likely GOP primary winner – at least outside of GOP headquarters where they are actively chasing away anyone who utters the term tea party. Â These are the same folks who lost the seat and who lost the Republican registration advantage previously enjoyed in the county. Â So seeing them get excited doesn’t exactly give me much hope or confidence.
Personally, I plan on directing my election work outside of the district to state level races over in Montgomery County. Â The Congressional seat may be safely blue, but the state rep and senate seats are by no means safe for Democrats.
I do not see Congressional District 7 as a toss up at all. With the Admiral stepping down, I see Pat Meehan winning easily over Lentz.
He has credibility and money. And lots of both.
With the fraud surrounding his petitions, he doesn’t exactly enter the race with a clean slate. The locals, state guys, and possibly feds are looking into the fraud. That’s not a small issue, even if the court decided to keep him on the ballot. Worse, the results of those investigations will likely be released closer to the point where voters begin to pay attention to the campaign.
PA-7 is D+3. That gives Lentz the registration advantage, though that won’t matter if Meehan can appeal to independents. I’m sure that Cook is also factoring in polling data which may show that Meehan doesn’t have any kind of instant lead in the race, even though he should have higher name recognition. I would, under no circumstances, assume that this district leans right. It’s going to be a hard-fought race for Meehan if he can win it.