The Hill notes that NRA seems reluctant to put their full weight against Kagan:, quoting from the head of another conservative group:
The group said Kagan’s record shows “nothing to indicate support for the Second Amendment†and promised to count her confirmation vote as a “key vote†when compiling congressional scorecards.
But it has not waged the intensive grassroots campaign some conservative activists had hoped for. These activists believe the NRA is reluctant to strain relations with Democrats, such as Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who often side with gun owners in legislative fights.
From what I’ve seen so far, that full weight is behind it. NRA is urging membership to contact their Senators, and have several times. I’m not sure what kind of “grassroots campaign” that Steve Levey is expecting. This is pretty standard fare for a major vote. I’m also not sure how he can critique their strategy on the Hill, considering that his organization would seem to have no presence on it. The big problem is that 5 Republicans are defecting on the Kagan vote, and a lot of Democrats are sure to defect. Defeating a nomination is hard.
What Democrats are counting on is that NRA won’t be able to mobilize anger on election day over Court nominations. Maybe they are right, but in that case I don’t have a lot of faith we’re going to get broad and robust Second Amendment protections.