Barron Barnett over at the Minuteman blog takes a look at the FBI’s 2010 Uniform Crime Report numbers, and compares them to Brady Score. He finds no correlation or weak correlation when comparing to violent crime. I’ve done a number of such analysis over the years, and have also never found any significant correlation between murder, violent crime, and either Brady Score or gun ownership. In short, there’s just absolutely no evidence, when you don’t cherry pick data, that the Brady Agenda does a damned thing to reduce violent crime or murder.
5 thoughts on “2010 Uniform Crime Report Nullifies Brady Arguments”
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Well, the Brady agenda would do one thing. Depending on the severity of enforcement it would drive violent crime rates higher. As the nearly 35,000 more or less restrictive gun laws currently in force have done.
The first thirty restrictive gun laws I looked at in 1968 were all followed by sharp increases in homicide and violent crime rates. That gave me and my partners in research better than “six sigma’ confidence in the result.
The few exceptions I have found to that rule all turned out to be outright misstatements on the part of the reporting authority. Of which there is a great deal more than is generally recognized.
For an example, from 1968 until 1977, Philadelphia was said to be an exception to the “more guns equal less crime” rule, even though the Inquirer and the Evening Bulletin each reported far more murders and other violent crimes than the City reported to the FBI. That came to a halt when the old Law Enforcement Assistance Administration cut off aid to the Philliy PD because they were reporting just one crime in ten.
Your neighbors across the river continue to short report by taking up to 62 days to officially log in a homicide – which “cannot be reported in the succeeding reporting period.”
And so on and so forth. But implementing the HCI/Brady program would have an even greater effect on violent crime rates than GCA 68, the restrictive state and city gun laws, and in fact every existing restrictive gun law.
Stranger
Thanks for the link Sebastian.
@Stranger, I’m looking at working up a more detailed analysis of the UCR history and teaming up with Linoge’s work to do it.
Most have just examines the “gun death” metric thus far and focused on related items. I’m working on trying to find a better way to display that data. The problem is the set is massive and difficult to comprehend what you’re looking at. I want something relatively self explanatory because that also usually ends up being the most educational.
Barron …. check out how GeorgiaCarry.Org did it. They graphed Agg.Assault and Robbery around the time of the change in the gun law.
http://www.georgiacarry.com/research/GCO_-_Guns_Good_Bans_Bad.pdf
Murders is a bad measure because a high percentage are tied to gangs and drugs.
Why are the cdc stats always so old?