The campaign to pressure Republicans to confirm Merrick Garland seems to be fizzling. As Glenn Reynolds noted, “Because everyone knows the Dems would do the same thing if parties were reversed.”
This whole business is depressing. If the Dems win the White House in 2016, we’ll get worse, and that may be the end of a meaningful Second Amendment. I think we have two real votes for a meaningful Second Amendment on the court: Thomas and Alito. Scalia was the third, but he’s gone now. I didn’t think there was anything radical about the Alito and Thomas concurring opinion in the Stun Gun Case, yet it’s interesting that neither Kennedy nor Roberts joined it. My perception, I hope I’m wrong but fear I’m right, is that the reason there’s been no certiorari granted on any of the gun cases is because the Heller majority had two weak links. Heller and McDonald may very well be the best Scalia could extract from his colleagues who formed the five justice majority in those cases.
Our best case scenario is quickly shaping up to be President Trump picking Scalia’s replacement. I don’t know if that scares you, but it scares the hell out of me. Makes you think that maybe McCain & Romney weren’t such bad guys after all.
You are assuming that Trump would make a better SCOTUS pick than Hillary.
There’s at least a chance. No way Hillary picks someone friendly to the Second Amendment.
I think that the indication of that case where only Alito and Thomas joined showed the weakness of the Heller Five. Its probably a good thing no certs have been granted.
And look, its not the end of the world if we lose the majority for the Second Amendment. We survived 1939-2008 just fine. We just have to not request Supreme Court Review.
Yeah, but things will continue to get worse in the blue states, and more and more states are turning blue. Long term we really need strong court protections on the right.
I totally agree that we need better protections, but my point is its not the end of the world if we don’t get a good Justice.
What we need to do is find a way to flip the blue states.
Strong court protections vanish the minute they’re no longer politically convenient. “Checks and balances” can only delay the inevitable by a few years at most.
If you’re looking to “principled justices” to save us from the blue plague, I expect you’ll be very disappointed.
You make a good point. The Supreme Court most certainly won’t hold out against the culture. But I think cultural trends are on our side.
It’s the end of people’s live on a regular basis in cities like NYC. So, no, it’s not just fine. It’s post Heller in 2016 and you still can’t apply for a personal CCW in NYC. That’s correct: you can apply for a premise permit; you can apply for a business permit; you can apply for a business carry* (full vs restricted); but the NYPD License Division won’t even *let you* apply for a personal CCW. And the rest of the state depends on the judges on your county to be 2A friendly for CCW shall issue.
So this whole business of how the lower courts –and now some on SCOTUS– are treating this very simple constitutional issue stinks something ferocious. I haven’t been so disgusted since pulling floaters out of the Hudson River piers when spring rolls around.
Sebastian is correct. Without some serious and immediate court corrections, expect to see this kind of nonsense slowly becoming the norm in states turning a bluer shade of purple. I believe it was here when I first read about a certain gun shop trying to be forced out of business in Virginia.
*And that’s only if you submit the most intimate details of your business records to the NYPD. Corporate officers; cash sales; credit sales; etc., etc., etc. Link: http://www.ammoland.com/2015/10/new-york-city-firearm-application-unrestricted-concealed-gun-license/ And if they issue you a *restricted* carry business permit, good luck you proving to the NYPD if you get stopped that you were on official business.
If the democrats win, the best strategy is to stop all 2A cases, and count our blessings the older cases were denied cert.
The SCOTUS can’t rule against the 2A if there’s no case before it.
The best case in the worst case is to wait a generation before the 2A is decided.
The worst case in the worst case is for the 2A to be decided before a radical left SCOTUS
We can’t really stop all Second Amendment cases, because defense lawyers are going to make a try for that if they think it could help their client. In those cases, you may have very unsympathetic defendants and attorneys who are inexperienced litigating Second Amendment cases. The best you can hope for is the Court to deny cert, and hope that a wiser, future court will revisit the issue.
Why do all of you think the lefties won’t bring a case, knowing the outcome would be harmful to us?
Merle
What kind of case falls into that area? A case that expands gun rights? How does a case expanding a right (even a made up one like abortion) stand a chance getting struck down in court in 2016?
Outside of an appeal based on procedural grounds (like the Act 192 case in PA) I don’t see it playing out like you say…
Keep it up, Eeyore
Wouldn’t it only take a Blue State or city to pass a draconian law just a little bit semantically different than those in Heller/MacDonald to bring a new case forward?
The issue is you end up blocked by circuit court precedent. For instance, the 2nd Circuit has pretty much ignored Heller & McDonald. So has the 1st Circuit.
Agreed. I am told the Eighth Circuit, wherein I reside, is more conservative than the First. If a case came up here, it hopefully would be decided in our favor. If a First Circuit decision on a similar case came in hostile to our position, I suspect the High Court would feel compelled to rule between the two to force consistency. And at present, that would be a crap shoot.
Oh how we must campaign and pray!
I reckon I’m going to vote for Cruz if he’s still in it by my State’s May primary. If not, I’ll probably gamble on Trump in November – Mrs. Clinton is a sure anti-gun vote. I don’t even know who’s running for the Libertarians.
Getting depressed.
Gary Johnson is the likely Libertarian candidate. I’m expecting to vote for him this time around: I cannot bring myself to vote for a Democrat, and I cannot convince myself that Donald Trump is anything but a Democrat…
Gary Johnson – I’ll check him out. Thank you, Alpheus!
Agreed. If its Hillary vs Clinton, I’m going to #FeelTheJohnson
Gun owners need to show up to the polls. The fight is in the legislatures.
Sebastian- You say “states are turning blue”. Okay, but the state legislature level has also been where we’ve seen most pro-2A legislation coming from in the last few years. And as a whole, we’ve also seen the good with the bad coming at the state level too.
Stop being chicken little. The erosion of the 2A doesn’t happen unless WE let it. And I for one don’t think anyone posting here will allow it to happen.
In red states, sure. We’ve been making a lot of gains at the state level. I can remember Colorado being a solidly purple state. I can remember Virginia not being all that competitive for Dems. I can even remember Oregon being reasonably competitive. Oregon is passing gun control. Colorado passed gun control. Nevada is increasingly turning blue, and is probably going to pass gun control in 2016.
Things are getting better in red states. They are getting worse in blue states, and more states are going from competitive to blue. That’s reality.
And then we have PA. Solidly blue at the state office level, probably going to be solidly blue at the US senate level. And really we could argue even during the Arlen Specter days we have been blue for a while at the federal level.
Okay let’s take your red-turned-blue states and look at what passed. Mostly unenforceable UBCs? Please. And we all know that the concept of background checks aren’t the worst thing IF they are actually done right without registration. You have had plenty of threads on that.
Purple Virginia you say? Five years ago you would STILL be limited to one gun a month as a resident. 50 state reciprocity? Yes, signed into law by a Bloomberg/Clinton shill. Would reciprocity have even happened as fast if Cuccinelli had been gov? Maybe, but as history shows, when anti-gunners push hard enough they quickly find out that we do, too.
Pro-gun legislation at the state level is advancing and winning. Odious stuff like AWBs have only passed in the worst of the worst states with no (legal) gun culture and nothing in their state constitution about gun rights.
The thought of Romney or McCain picking a Supreme Court justice scared the crap out of me.
The thought of Bush picking Supreme Court justices scared the crap out of me too, but we still won Heller and McDonald, even though Roberts has been mostly a dud. He at least made one good pick. Even if McCain had split the bill, we’d have one more vote for the Second Amendment on the Supreme Court than we did when Heller was decided. Now we’ll be lucky to hold even.
The “gun rights” fight is moving back to the legislatures, where, arguably, it belongs. One thing worth noting, every time NY or NJ or another state like that pops an out-of-stater for possession, it makes that person’s home state congressional delegation marginally more interested in forcing reciprocity. A strong majority of the states have shall-issue carry of some kind; and note the drubbing VA’s governor took when he tried to scale back VA’s reciprocity.
Romney or Mccain is better than
Obama or Clinton. But we have been winning in red states But the problem is when GOP govenos fix problem people get complacent and think they can give away money to the lazy and go with moral feel good policies.
More states are turning left, but eventually republicans will wake up or die.
A lot of democrats have conservative ideals, but the implosion of the republicans are a huge driving force for the shift to the left.
Stop legislating morality and let the private sector take over. And if people remain immoral, so be it.
Once the republicans adopt that approach, we and the whole country will be in a far better place.
When you guys say “more states are turning blue” you’re realistically talking about going from half a dozen hostile states to ten at most.
One thing that I wonder about is why the US house and senate can’t just pass 50 state reciprocity or a ban on weapon/magazine/ammo bans? It would inconvenience a tiny fraction of the states. The only reason it wouldn’t pass is if we don’t have a majority of pro-gun people in the US Senate and House. Is that really the case?
Yeah I don’t get the “states are turning blue” when the opposite is clearly true. Sure blue states are turning bluer, and some red states bordering on blue states may turn blue, but overall states are turning red.
And the House and Senate can pass a 50 state reciprocity- except Obama would veto it and they can’t override it. In fact, in 2012, we had 57 votes for reciprocity.
We console ourselves this way: Trump is a great salesman, but even great salesmen falter if they don’t eventually deliver most of what they promise.
Trump is selling himself and making “deals” with the public. On guns he has pretty much left no wiggle room (national carry, etc.). Forgetting the rest, there is a better than Hillary-chance he will do things for us than she will.
So that’s about it: Hope *.
* Yes, we’ve seen “Hope, The Movie” and know how it ends. But we are resigned to the sequel and Hope for a different ending…that this time Old Yeller doesn’t end up behind the barn.
Frankly I feel better with Trump than Romney. or McCain. I can’t for the life of me understand why anyone feels differently.