I wish I had shorted the pound, because once I read Charles C.W. Cooke’s article that suggested “Stay” had become the position all right thinking people held, I said to Bitter “That means ‘Stay’ is over-polling and ‘Leave’ has a real shot.” But I’m not a finance-minded person. I don’t even know how you short a currency. Polling is becoming unreliable because when you make “All sensible people support The Silly Party” type positions, people lie to pollsters. Even Charles C.W. Cooke agrees:
As in 2015, the simple answer was that the public lies to pollsters. And who can blame it? I have spent quite a lot of time in the U.K. over the last month, and I have been startled by the condescension, the disdain, and the downright bullying that I have seen from advocates within the Remain camp.
By the same token, if you notice Hillary and Donald close in polling, it probably means The Donald is ahead. Trump has become the “no respectable and intelligent person would ever vote for” candidate. So people will lie to pollsters. This also explains why “expanded background checks” polls at 90% while in deep blue Washington it only pulled in 59% of the vote. Gun control has almost always way over-polled.
The Brexit Internets have to go to Tam on this one, upon news of hearing the pound was getting pounded:
I’m going to go stand in the beer aisle at the grocery store and wait for them to mark down the Boddington’s.
— Tamara K. (@TamSlick) June 24, 2016
Polls were also horribly wrong in the 2014 midterm and 2015 offyear elections here in the US. If you actually breakdown the polling samples in the US today, the samples are Deomcrat +7 as the plurality voting block with GOP voters second and independent voters 3rd.
Funny though, that sampling method was accurate in 2012, but as of 2013, the US electorate breaks down as Independents at 37% of the plurality Democrats at 31% and GOP at 29%. None of the polls reflect the US National Electorate Party Indentification.
Bad news for the Dems. London neck and neck with NYC as a world financial hub. This could set off an economic panic. Last time that happened, the White House changed parties.
(Now, the blame could fall on “those people,” but it’d be ahistoric)
Don’t forget it got 60% w/ 10x the money put into it compared to the opposition.
I don’t lie to pollsters, I just hang up on them. As I read it, usually they poll “likely voters” this year there are many more people voting. I think I read somewhere that Trump pulled it 1.8 million more voters than they have ever had. Bernie boosted voting too. Now that Bernie is out, will they stay?
With today’s technology, I’d say all polls are biased in that they only reach people who are first, so dumb they will answer a call from a number they don’t recognize; and second, so dumb they’ll answer political questions from a stranger they don’t know.
I’ve probably had calls from pollsters, but sometimes I go days and dozens of calls before answering the phone, and then only from a number I recognize and want to talk to. Only about 1 in 20 leaves a message, and those are usually something to ignore.
I seriously think the days of phone polling are about over.
I do thing same thing, if I don’t recognize it a let it ring. I have Voicemail, if it’s important they can leave a message, if not why should I talk to them in the first place!
It is interesting to reflect upon: I remember a column many years ago (pre-Caller-ID) that noted how “we” could not resist a ringing phone; while at the same time, we could resist answering our doorbells.
That seems to have changed. But now I am aware that if my phone signals a text, I almost can’t resist checking on who texted me. But, I have much more command of whether I respond or not.
Question on the tweet you posted, if the value of your money drops don’t prices normally go Up, not down?
Or am I wrong?
(I just got up a couple hours ago and am just now getting around to coffee, so it could be me…..)
One of the few intelligent comments I have seen about the economics of Brexit.
When the pound goes down the prices of their goods drop when exported But import prices increase.
Two things:
1) The need to lie to pollsters is why “Moms Demand More Bedroom Action” think that firearms ownership is going down despite all other evidence. We (those with two neurons to rub together at least) will no longer reveal our firearms ownership to an unknown person.
2) I heard you can record that annoying “disconnected number tone” and put it on your voicemail or answering machine outgoing message first. Since so many polls and solicitations are first identified by a robo-dialer, it will end the nonsense. The robo-dialer hears the tone and immediately hangs up and I understand it will also remove the number from the roll.
Note: The Do Not Call registry helps, but polls are exempt.