While ANJRPC are filing suit in the 3rd Circuit over Governor Murphy’s reversal of former Governor Christie’s policy of granting carry licenses to those who have demonstrated true threats against them, in the 2nd Circuit, NYSRPA are filing suit over a provision of the SAFE Act that just went into effect requiring licenses to be renewed every 5 years. Most gun owners in in New York State are now felons, without even realizing it. Massachusetts made a similar move some years ago, and yes, people did go to prison over it. Most gun owners are not all that political, and many of them will never hear that their handgun permit, which has been a lifetime permit for years, is now suddenly no longer a lifetime permit. Many others will hear of the law, but see their permit is a lifetime permit, and think “Well, this doesn’t apply to me then.” The idea that people like this belong in state prison is kind of sick. This is not tin-foil-hat paranoia; I can point to cases where this has happened. When Bitter was working for the issue in Mass, even years later, there would still be the occasional felony charge for someone caught with an “expired” lifetime license. Sorry, we’ve altered the deal. Pray we do not alter it any further.
The resumption of lawsuits is a welcome development, and probably represents the belief that the makeup of the Court will soon be changing in our favor. Second Amendment law has not gone well for us since McDonald, for the most part. The midterms may be a bloodbath for the GOP, so I still do worry. I also believe Ginburg and Breyer will only vacate their seats via hearse. Kennedy likewise doesn’t seem remarkably interested in retirement. But it takes cases years to get to the Supreme Court, and it seems likely by the time these lawsuits reach the high court, it will have changed. The question is whether it will have changed for the better.
I expect SCOTUS to take up either case once Congress (as the Representatives of The Public) either craps or gets off the pot of expanding carry.
Until then, John Roberts will wait and watch.
The ANJRPC suit appears to be far more broad than simply contesting Murphy’s reversal of Christie’s policy change. It seeks to eliminate the “justifiable need†requirement altogether, and references the win via Wrenn & Grace for support.
That was my read as well. ANJPRC is taking a second whack at the judicial piñata by way of the DC suit.
Lawsuits are interminable and the bad guys spend taxpayer dollars to fight them and then continue to resist even if they lose. which they won’t because of John Roberts. I want indictments for denial of civil rights. Make it personal.
“The midterms may be a bloodbath for the GOP…”
Highly doubt that given all the corruption coming out about the Democratic Party / Deep State — reaching all the way up to — “wants to know everything we’re doing” — (former) President Obama.
It’s going to come down to which side is more energized. There’s a race in PA about five weeks away. It’s going to be a bellwether.
I heard both Pence and Trump are going to be visiting Pittsburgh campaigning?
Indeed. I know everyone is expecting a bloodbath, and it might be, but the RNC has $40 million to dish out, while the DNC is about $6 million in debt.
There are a lot of mixed signals, but it seems to me that the edge is currently going to the Republicans. (It’s also nice to see Pence and Trump stumping for Republicans, as rd says: it means that the Republicans are taking this seriously.)
I’m not willing to say that it’s *not* going to be a bloodbath, but our political position is weird enough that I’m not willing to say, one way or the other…
Having said that, I have the impression that Democrats are expecting a bloodbath because HISTORY, but aren’t willing to put in the work to make it a bloodbath, except to screech “TRUMP!!!1111!1!1!” at every opportunity…
The house is a bit of a tossup, but I don’t see the Republicans losing ground in the Senate: The class of senators up for reelection was elected in a wave election that heavily favored the democrat party even in states that are purple and ruby red.
IF the election were held today, I’d expect the Senate to move at least R+4.
The safe bet is the Republicans hold on to the U.S. Senate majority but lose the U.S. House majority.
I’m more interested in how the State races shake out. Because as far as gun policy is concerned, State level is where the real change is occurring. Whereas the Feds are going to be stalemated for the foreseeable future.
Now if, BIG if, the Republicans change the rules of the U.S. Senate so that the Democratic minority could no longer filibuster pro-gun legislation, AND the Republicans hold on to their U.S. House majority, Then some real action might be possible. But that combination of events seems extremely improbable to me.
You think there’s enough “unsafe” House districts to matter to the majority?
It’s the Senate where I expect the R majority (such as it isn’t) to evaporate.
If things keep going the way they have been, the Republican Senate majority has an effectively 0% chance of shrinking. The makeup of the current class of Senators currently up for reelection:
* 1/3 Democrat-held seats in Democrat stronghold states;
* 1/3 Democrat-held seats in state that are either Republican strongholds, or purple states that have been trending (R) and voted for Trump;
* slightly under 1/3 Republican-held seats in states likely to elect Republicans; and
* 2 Republican-held seats in purple states that have a good chance of flipping.
TLDR: If nothing earth-shattering happens to screw things up between now and November, I see R+2 as the worst probable outcome. I wouldn’t be surprised to see R+5 or better. 2020 is where the Democrats are going to give us a real run for the Senate.
Hmmm. I wonder what that does to the reciprocity numbers? Probably not as much as we’d like
House races have a lot of GOP retirements. Incumbency brings the ability to raise funds, so starting with a fresh race is always tough for either party. Also, House races can be subject to the whims of the electorate more so than the Senate, which is why mid-term swings are a thing.
Personally, I’m cautiously optimistic we hold both (esp senate), but Trump can blow all that in a few bad days of just being Trump. That dude has about zero self-awareness sometimes.
Dunno. The “generic ballot” has at least a 4-point bias toward Dems (according to lefty Vox/Nate Silver) and as of this post the Dems are only +2. Yeah, all politics are local and the retirement of a lot of GOP House members is worrying. But so far, so good.
Of course, Trump can (will?) blow any good lead with an ill-timed Tweet claiming something provably stupid or suggestively crazy.
So here’s to hoping Trump continues letting staff vet his posts, first…
Still happens in MA occasionally. Been in stores where old timers throw a fit when told their “lifetime license“ isn’t valid anymore and simple possession of so much as a spent casing is a felony.
I’m curious to read about the Massachusetts incidents where people’s licenses got changed and they went to prison. Can you post some examples?
There is a poor guy in MA which has been charged with an “safe storage violation” (felony) because he left a gun unsecured on his kitchen table. He was cleaning the gun when he had the heart attack and called 911. EMS took him away, police arrived to secure the house, found the gun, DA charged him.
There was another case where a wife came home to find her husband dead from a heart attack. He was carrying, and the arriving officers had the gall to cite her for having an unsecured gun in the house, as in unsecured on his dead body. She was licensed as was her deceased husband, but the police still confiscated the firearm. She prevailed in court and the PD went on to immediately revoke her licensed as an arbitrarily “unsuitable” person. Her other guns where then confiscated by the PD, she had no chance to move them out of state, to a licensed friend, or sell them, and essentially her collection was stolen by the PD via a bonded warehouse.
MA is a baby step behind CA when it comes to asinine fuckery of the citizenry.
Can you point to any news pieces on those cases, or others like them? They seem like such perfect cases to use to explain what gun control schemes like that really end up being like in practice.
Contact Robert Boudrie rob_boudrie@comm2a.org or Keith Langer, Esq.
http://kglangerlaw.com/
They were involved in those cases.
Here’s hoping the left learns that math can be a real bitch. Trump has at least three years – and maybe seven – to go. Do Ginsburg and Breyer have the same? Kennedy always seems one case from retiring.
I don’t see Thomas and Alito holding out like “Notorious RBG” when they know Trump is likely to name successors in their image. SCOTUS-math says replacing Thomas and Alito with pro-2A jurists is almost as valuable (in the long view) as replacing Ginsburg.
Some days I daydream thinking we might actually see RBG, Breyer, Thomas, Alito and Kennedy all replaced during a long Trump admin. That could be awesome, assuming his court picks stay high quality.