Those days are coming to a close. I keep saying that it doesn’t matter if polling of millennials says they don’t support gun control. If they aren’t willing to fight for it, it won’t matter worth a damn. If they put Democrats in power, they will start banning guns, accessories, and placing other restrictions. That is going to start happening in every state the Dems have a shot at, which is a lot. From the article:
“It didn’t change my mind,” Helm said of the Fair Haven case, “but it got me thinking a lot more in detail.”
Helm sees a generational shift eroding Vermont’s traditional gun culture. Gun owners are getting older, and young people are not as active on gun rights.
“It didn’t shift in the last month,” Helm said. “It started a long time ago, and it will go on for a long time. It’s going to go on a little harder and faster if we don’t put a stop to this.”
That’s from a lawmaker who voted against S. 55, a bill that will ban bump stocks (the bad broad bill Bloomberg has been pushing) raise the age for buying guns to 21 across the board, ban private sales, and ban magazines that hold more than 10 rounds. This seems likely to pass in Vermont.
This is the way it’s going to go folks, state-by-state. How likely do you think we are to get federal preemption if 15 states have the same laws as New York? What you’re seeing is our activist base getting old and tried, and not being replaced by millennials. If we don’t replace those people, how millennials poll on gun control won’t matter. By the time they are in charge, the generations of Dems they put into power will have already ruined us.
Other things to note is that the Governor is a Republican who a month ago went all “I’m a gun owner but…” And endorsed magazine bans and all the other gun control.
Also the Vermont Dems seem to have been quiet on the issue and were building up until they got this chance.
So it’s worth noting that even if you have “the right” party in the govenor’s mansion, even if “they haven’t been talking about guns”, even if your state, currently, has very friendly laws.
It can come in real quick.
http://digital.vpr.net/post/vermont-senate-decide-friday-whats-next-sweeping-gun-control-bill
Somre more information on what’s going on
Thanks. Hope its an all hands on deck fight. Maybe cooler heads can prevail. The thing to avoid is that magazine ban. I’d make getting that out priority number one. The rest of the things in there you can fight later.
So what’s the likelihood this actually gets signed into law? Are any of you actually having important conversations with the governor?
Oh, I’m not a Vermont resident.I just heart a bit more about it.
Ahd the update says…
Well that the senate voted for it, including the mag bans.
SO it’s going to the governor… who says he’ll sign it.
If Phil Scott thinks it will help him get reelected in 2018, than he’d better prepare his 2018 concession speech instead. Watch; Vermont will have a Democrat Governor in 2019, and alongside the Democrat Legislature in 2019, will pass a “NY SAFE Act” in no time.
By signing this Bill as well, Maine and New Hampshire are in serious trouble if they flip to the Democrats after 2018, but then again, Florida, which is controlled both Legislatively and Gubernatorially by Republicans, surrendered to Bloomberg, putting every State in Jeopardy anyway.
Stop the schools from indoctrinating our children See example https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/georgia-middle-school-gun-control-letter-assignment/
The direction of this blog is starting to piss me off. I wonder why I come here anymore. Nearly every post, EVERY ONE you have made in the past month reeks of depressing defeatism. If you’ve given up the fight since all you say is how bad things are going to get and to not bother anymore at least tell us and stop. I have been an avid reader of this blog since 2007-2008. Sure you had these posts but never on the way I’m seeing now. It’s like you’re saying ‘don’t give up but it doesn’t matter because we’re all screwed no matter what we do or how hard we fight’. If you really think that be upfront about it and shut down.
This attitude, this near constant stream of posts about how seemingly fucked we are is not helping anything. Just like how our side attacks the NRA. The other blogs and guns sites I regular are not anywhere near as depressing and defeatist as this one has gotten. If you’re such a defeatist right now why bother? You’re obviously of the camp were all going to be to one in less than 20 years.
Please Share the good news with us Shawn. I would like to hear it.
My tone is not meant to be defeatist, it’s meant to spur people to get off their rears, grab a bucket, and start helping put out the fire.
If you want to hear nice stories about how great everything is, and that we don’t face any threats, I have to admit, this isn’t the place for you.
If other people agree, I’ll have to reconsider. I’ll be honest, I was pretty optimistic from 2007-2010, because we were winning. I am far less so now. I will admit that. But it’s not because I think this is unwinnable. I’m less optimistic because we’re arrayed against very very powerful enemies who are, to be frank, out organizing us because they have the money to hire talented professionals to do it. They also have the media completely in their corner.
We’ve been here before, and we’ve come out on top in the end. But we’re going to need all hands on deck, and we can’t expect we’re going to win doing what we’ve been doing.
Our culture dying because of a lack of youth engagement and activism is a very real threat.
Think about it like the language and culture of the Indian tribes. Without proactive efforts to keep it alive, it will die.
That issue is the hidden “front line” of our fight. Legislative and judicial activities are almost tactical by comparison.
So I agree Seb, that this real talk is valuable almost precisely because we’re not having those conversations elsewhere. We can rah, rah all we want behind NICs figures, polls, etc., but if we aren’t getting kids into the clubs to network and socially reinforce each other, writing letters, taking an interest in collecting, talking the politics of 2A, etc., I’m not sure how the culture survives.
I do detect a tone of exhaustion from your writing, periodically – like you’re a bit tired after fighting and not seeing any end to the fight – and I empathize. Lord knows that if you get involved in social politics (NRA, Republicans) it is a soul-sucking dance with vampires. It’s not yours to shoulder by yourself. And you aren’t.
The problem is you run a blog, which takes work and enthusiasm even when your mind wants to switch over to another hobby for a while. I humbly suggest that this may be showing through in some of your writing lately.
Kind of rambling, but many people love your blog, we support you, I think your contribution is very valuable and the issues you’re bringing up are very important. Your blog is to gun sites what “MeatEater” is to hunting shows. :) I mean that as the best compliment I can imagine right now.
I appreciate the feedback. You’ll notice my posting frequency isn’t what it used to be, and part of that is fatigue at having done this for so long. I don’t want to give it up, but it is tiring. So I apologize if I don’t have the energy for this I did a decade ago.
I don’t actually think we’re doomed. But I fear we do have a narrow window in which we can turn this around. I was galvanized on this issue by the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban. I worry that’s what it might take to create the next generation. And then there’s always the worry that they just outright win this time.
Anyone like you and me who were shocked by 1994, has good reason to be optimistic today no matter how dire current politics might appear! I think 1994 was Peak Gun-Control.
Yes, hunting culture may be dying. But many things today are better than they were back then, many facts on the ground are so much better today than they were back then, that we have many reasons for optimism about the future.
Sure, things are likely to get a lot worse for a lot of people in some places like Commiefornia before they get better. But I’d say the long term prognosis is hopeful everywhere in the Nation.
Sebastian
I think you’ve been doing a very good job. In particular when it comes to the trick of maintaining idealistic goals with pragmatic methods. This is why your blog is my first stop when it comes to keeping up on gun-control news.
If we are going to win this fight we must be willing to see the battlefield clearly.
One reason the anti-gunners haven’t won yet is because they prefer to dwell in a realm of illusions and lies.
You say that and then you turn around saying essentially ‘resistance is futile’. I’m not saying that it’s all roses right now. It sucks right now and we are fighting like mad. However in one post you say ‘we need to do X’ but the next post ‘doing X won’t do anything because Y and Z’. That no matter how hard you fight we will eventually lose. That is the vibe I get.
Give me an example. I’m not trying to be obtuse, I want to see if I’m really being inconsistent and delivering messages depending on my mood, which I try not to do.
Your post right after this one for example stating the factors against us right now. You bring up how they have all this money and the change in demographics. You then say we don’t have enough passion to organise. I’ve seen quite a lot of passion right now on our side however we by nature cannot be ‘organised’ as we are not collectivists being funded by the super rich. Yet we do. But the MSM won’t cover it. You say we’ll lose unless we bring more people into our side of the fight but since we don’t have money and we’re not paid by billionares we will lose no matter how many we bring in. Yet we do hold our ground and we do try to get out there. And I’m not talking donating money to groups both the NRA and state although that’s a part of it. I’m talking contacting your congress critters, introduce people to guns, educate them on this and how important it is, organise marches and be seen during debates on gun bills both for and against. We do that stuff to. But you say because we don’t/can’t do it on the same level because we don’t have the money, backed by billionaires because we have jobs and responsibilities and can’t do this all the time we will lose as we get outspent and can’t dedicate THAT much energy and time. Way to instill confidence that if we fight we will win or at least not lose. You also post about how we need to vote and get those who hate our guts and wants us systematically exterminated for being pro gun but then you basically say it is all in vain because the newer generation isn’t as willing to fight even though we are willing to fight. Also your citibank post. You say that the only thing we have is each other right now but you also say Bloomberg can end us and you say it as there is nothing we can do and no matter how hard we are fighting now it won’t matter because we’re disorganized but give little in ideas of what to actually do. But it does matter.
Now I can be totally looking at this the wrong way and I admit that, but this is the impression I get.
I also look at this as I am your antithesis to that viewpoint you seem to take about the younger generation. I’m a living example. I’m the newer generation you talk about; a millennial. A very pro-gun and vocal and outgoing one at that. I’ve only been at this a couple years before obama got selected president. I am very vocal about my gun ownership and where I stand and I will educate people on how stupid the current laws are, I offer to and take people out shooting out of my own pocket, I donate time and money to various groups, go to events and my state legislature house. I contact my congress people and luckily mine in my state and US house rep are very pro-gun. My senators are wobbly, they do one thing I like and another to piss me off but I still contact them. And you know what? I’m from North Side chicago originally. My family was/is incredibly anti-gun. My aunt is that 1 in 5 that feels the 2nd ammendment should be repealed and we should have confiscation and merely looking at a gun in person creates a physical negative reaction. That’s a good portion of my family but she’s the worst. I was teached in anti-gun schools, I still remember writing in grade school about we should not have guns because I didn’t understand the bill of rights the way I do now. I would scold my younger self over how ignorant I was. Parents moved to another state when I was in high school and right after I got into it the same way I get people into it: I was introduced. I went shooting with a friend on a whim when he showed me one of his guns and I was intrigued as I had never seen one in person except on a cop let alone fired one, decided I wanted a gun of my own when we were done. I got one and that turned into 5 including a my first AK and now I have more than him and stockpiled so much ammo I was selling it to my other gun owning friends at no profit during the shortages during 2008-2013. I joined the NRA, my state groups and got politically active. And I know I’m not the only one with that story. But if I and others do it, in the end you say because of demographics and Bloomberg money you seem to imply our effort and my effort is worth shit in the end.
I can relate to the family issue. Half of my family are pro gun control, and I’ve been getting a lot of grief too. So I can relate, believe me. It is affecting my mood, I won’t lie.
Do you think I need to lay off millennials? I mean, maybe I’ve been unfair by painting with a broad brush, but that’s really all I’m doing. I realize there are individual millennials who are active. It boosts my morale to hear that. Eventually, you guys will be out of the hot seat, and we’ll all be bitching about Generation Z. It’ll happen.
I think you’re drawing conclusions from what I’m saying that I’m not intending to convey. If I’m conveying that, maybe I need to think a bit more carefully about how I say things. I said Bloomberg and his rich buddies can end us, not that he and his rich buddies will end us. Whether he succeeds us up to us. There’s no guarantee we’ll win; there never is, but we have to try. My sentiment there, that we just had each other, is that we’re very reliant on self-organization to fight. Until NRA figures things out in terms of countering Bloomberg’s engine, that’s what we have.
If we had 20 million highly motivated and passionate gun owners, and they were distributed in all the right places, we could rely on self-organization and destroy Bloomberg every time no matter how much money he spends. Right now I think we’re mostly a self-organizing bunch.
Gun owners are not impossible to organize. It’s like herding cats, but it’s not impossible. Technological changes are making top-down organizing considerably more effective than it’s been in the past, and it’s not something our movement can afford to ignore. That’s why I’ve been riding NRA to bring in outside opinions and start investing more heavily in this kind of organization. Self-organizing is great, but it can’t be relied on exclusively because of a combination of technological change and social changes.
If Blue States that are traditionally very good on guns start going all out for gun control, that’s a huge change, really bad for us, and something to be very concerned about, as I think Sebastian is.
I’ve said about DE that we were not all that bad on Guns given how blue we are. I think the point here is, the moment the Dems decide to really take up the mantle of major gun legislation in states where they have a stronghold, we are in serious trouble. Are we not seeing that?
VT has almost no gun control, and a very low crime rate, but it has always been very, very blue. It’s big time Bernie Sanders territory. The only reason it wasn’t like MA or CT on guns is because the legislature never really cared to push the issue. If that changes, VT will fall. Every blue state will fall if the Dems in their legislatures start acting like this. Call it defeatist if you will, but from a purely numbers standpoint, it’s reality.
Here’s the thing: will the category of Blue States with pro-gun laws, remain Blue if they go anti-gun?
The Democrats might be making a colossal blunder.
The problem is, it is the REPUBLICANS in Florida and Vermont that are #$^&ing the Second Amendment Brad! It wouldn’t be happening if the Republicans weren’t doing it! The gov of Vermont is a Republican, as the gov of Florida!
Vermont is a State in decline. Their population is one of the fastest shrinking, and becoming poorer and poorer by the year.
What really worries me is Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania for 2019 and beyond. Pennsylvania is an anti-gun “sleeper state”, and California is through the immigration and Sanctuary State issue, proving to be the “Beta-Test” for how the Democrat Party is going write the 2nd Amendment out of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, as well as subverting both of them, outright, all Amendents through and through.
Vermont is a retirement home for people from New York and Massachusetts. That’s why it’s in trouble.
My family owns some vacation property in Vermont, and accordingly keeps an ear to the ground w/r/t state politics.
What’s happened is kind of threefold:
(1) Urbanization effects. People are moving to population centers like Burlington and Montpelier; rural areas are declining.
(2) Migration. People move into the state from Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, ostensibly seeking a simpler, small-town New England lifestyle, but they bring their shitty left-wing politics with them. This exacerbates problem #1, because they consistently vote to soak “the rich” in order to fund ever-bigger government — except that “the rich” in Vermont turn out to be a lot of just-getting-by dairy farmers who are land- and livestock-rich but cash-poor.
(3) The decline of hunting. For a long time Vermont has been a destination spot for hunters not just from other New England states, but from all over the country. Those visitors provided significant juice to the state economy. But as interest in hunting has waned, so has the money hunters bring into the state, and “keep our gun laws reasonable as a competitive advantage in the market for attracting out-of-state hunters” isn’t the economic no-brainer it used to be.
The other, important thing to understand is that northeastern Republicans are, by and large, gelded. They’ve internalized most of the left’s assumptions about the best way to organize society, and the only useful function most of them serve is to politely object to some of the left’s loonier aspirations. They’re not reliable allies in this fight, even less so than most Republicans.
This baloney in a state that has a homicide rate comparable to Australia and lower than Europe’s, most years.
This action shows that it’s definitely not about homicide; it’s about sticking it to disfavored outgroups…and perhaps a latent thirst for absolute power over the plebeians.
Exactly right.
Gun-control has never really been about crime control.
I’m not surprised VT finally switched. I don’t think it portends anything long term. The bad states get worse, and the good states will get better. That’s what has been happening. Gun owners will move out in to better states. We will become true two America’s long term.
Vermont was a good state until this week.
Its time was coming. Depopulation plus an accumulation of Bernie Sanders leftists waiting in the wings will screw up a state. They’ll only let you alone for so long.
Also, I’d be curious to see how the Fair Haven thing influenced this. I have a feeling you are neglecting local politics.
We were lucky it was a good state until this week. In fact, the only reason it has constitutional carry was because of a court decision. This is a state that elected Bernie many times. Its next door to a bunch of liberal states.