Bitter – Page 122 – Shall Not Be Questioned

Signs, Signs, Everywhere There’s Signs

I’ve been paying attention to the number of signs going up around our area during this campaign, and it’s not news that those going up are overwhelmingly GOP signs. What I find startling are the people who are putting up signs.

One property owner on a major road just a mile or so away has never put a single political sign up in all the years I’ve been visiting or living with Sebastian. He now has a massive plywood sign taking up his entire corner for the Republican congressional candidate – Mike Fitzpatrick.

Several homes in our neighborhood have never had political signs up before, and they are now sporting signs for Fitzpatrick, and for the Senate candidate, Pat Toomey.

Almost every house with McCain signs out in 2008 has at least two more GOP signs out this year. Unlike 2008, I have yet to see a single Democrat in our area put up a sign. The only signs we’ve seen for Democrats have been posted by the campaign on public property instead of private lawns. I really didn’t see much in the way of bumper stickers when for Republican candidates in 2008, but now I see them on a few cars parked around the neighborhood.

To say there’s an enthusiasm gap in the signage is an understatement. I know the ultimate sign will be the results on election night, but so far, things are looking pretty good here in Lower Bucks County. In the meantime, I’ll take some time to also enjoy this snippet from the NYT on the Democratic incumbent’s attempt to campaign in the darkest blue portions of the district and getting yelled at by nearly everyone in the neighborhood.

So Many Questions…

Every once in a while, there’s a tweet that can kick start your imagination. The other day, I came across one of those tweets. From @pgPoliTweets:

Watching Smart Talk. Hbg Mayor Thompson just said the solution to downtown crime is to have more vigilantes. Wow!

Harrisburg is bankrupt, so I suppose it could be a cost cutting measure. Regardless, it’s one of those things that makes me happy they accommodate those who choose to carry at the State Capitol since it sounds like folks should be prepared to carry a little more firepower in Harrisburg.

Oh, and I might add that this is a MAIG mayor calling for more vigilantes.

Bryan Lentz Loses the Teamsters

Nobody can say that politics is boring this year. We’ve got angry independents, tea parties, bumbling Republicans, Democrats who can’t even get people to remember they are on the ballot, and outside groups pouring money into Pennsylvania to try and shake things up (or keep them the same – depending on their interests).

The Teamsters just withdrew their endorsement of Bryan Lentz in PA-7 yesterday. This can’t be good for him.

The district was represented by a Republican until 2006 when the FBI announced an investigation surrounding the GOP incumbent right before election day. The race had not been on anyone’s radar until that point. Suddenly, the Republican was booted out and the investigation lead to absolutely squat. Since then, it seems to have highlighted just how far left the primary counties in the district have gone. Even in a landmark year like this, polling hasn’t put the Republican former US Attorney terribly far ahead. Charlie Cook has it as a Lean R and Larry Sabato has it as a Toss-Up.

But, that said, Lentz can’t afford to lose any votes. And having a major Democratic interest group tell its members that they shouldn’t bother voting for you? Well, that’s not good. In fact, I would argue that a withdrawn endorsement is probably worse than having never had an endorsement at all, though I admit to not having much to back that up rather than gut feeling and a general knowledge of how NRA members would likely handle it if it happened on our issue.

With this news just adding to the excitement, I guess I should go buy some popcorn. Think they have the Christmas tubs on sale yet? This is going to be one very amusing election night.

Brady Campaign: Please Don’t Believe the NRA Democrats, Pretty Please!

It looks like Paulie is begging Democrats to ignore history, the advice of their past (successful) leaders, and scholarly research. In his post yesterday, he skirts around the truth in a plea begging Democrats not to go running into the arms of the NRA.

This myth that promoting and passing strict gun laws can be political suicide has its roots in the 1994 elections, when Democrats lost control of both houses of Congress. Bill Clinton was president and earlier in his term he supported and signed the laws restricting the sale of assault weapons and the Brady bill requiring that federally licensed dealers conduct background checks. In his 2004 autobiography he wrote, â€œThe NRA â€¦could rightly claim to have made Gingrich the House speaker.â€

But as Clinton also pointed out, there were a lot of other reasons for the game-changing defeats. The party in control almost always loses seats in off-year elections. It was to be no different in 1994.

Let’s look at the mid-term elections prior to 1994 to see if we can see just how true that is:

1982	1986	1990	1994
26 seats	5 seats	8 seats	54 seats

At no point in my lifetime was there anything close to the election of 1994. You can’t compare losing 5 or 8 seats to losing 54 seats. You can’t even begin to compare 26 seats – the previous record of my lifetime. So, yes, Paul is telling the truth. But, he’s hiding the fact that you’re talking about a handful of people losing their seats to more than 10% of the House changing hands. To paraphrase Joe Biden, that’s a big freakin’ deal. Paul can try to downplay it all he wants, but he can’t escape those pesky contextual facts.

Even beyond the numbers game, there is a little bit of truth in what Paul argues – NRA’s support can’t make or break every race in every election. If leaders piss off grassroots members of 20 other interest groups, it’s going to be tough for the members of one single group to outnumber the members of so many others. Not to mention, now that Democrats have done all they can to piss off not only Republicans, but a majority of independents, well, there’s only so much we can do as one single group.

However, the power of the NRA is at the individual district level. An Independence Institute study found that for every 10,000 NRA members, an endorsement will add about 3% to a candidate’s total. I think our own congressional race is a great example.

When the two current candidates ran against each other in 2006, the difference was a mere 1,518 votes across the entire district. Most of the district is made up of Bucks County, so I’m looking at their license to carry information to give estimates on just how many votes gun owners can provide. In 2006, nearly 4,500 people of voting age got a carry license in Bucks County. Add in the “current” licenses of people at the time, and you’re talking about 17,194 potential votes in the district. There’s no way to figure it up for the portion of Philadelphia included in the congressional district, but that portion of the city has a large number of firefighters and police officers who are frequently pro-gun. (Believe me, we’ve had lots of cops calling to find out who is endorsed by NRA this year.) Let’s safely say 20,000 potential voters.

Every single one of those votes matters, and NRA has had an active voter registration drive going the last few years. If we can pull a couple of thousand more votes out of those numbers, then the endorsement & promotion will make a difference.

As mighty as the NRA is perceived to be by overly cautious politicians and their advisors, thanks to the courage of leaders, scores of victims, and supporters of sensible gun laws, the gun lobby doesnâ€™t make much of a difference on who wins and loses elections.

The Brady Campaign can’t point to a study of the impact of their endorsements in elections. They don’t have voters walking up to candidates with a voter guide in hand saying that the group’s support guided their votes. They can’t actually point to any races where their support did make a difference. In a year like this, NRA’s endorsement is likely to help boost the numbers by just enough to put some challengers over the top and possibly protect some incumbents.

Again, Paul is correct in that NRA doesn’t exactly get to handpick all of Congress. But, what they can measurably do is impact enough races that politicians clamor to us in order to pick up our votes in hopes that their race is one to benefit. So, once again, context matters.

Weird Blog Reading Habits

Based on a recommendation from another blogger, I decided to add bevlog to my regular reads to see what they had to offer. If you read their “about” section, you might find it’s a very odd topic to follow: “bevlog reviews almost all of the 100,000+ beer, wine and spirits labels approved by TTB each year. We try to bring you the most noteworthy.”

If I didn’t find the topic strangely intriguing, then I would have missed their coverage of Intercourse Blue Ball Porter. And, yes, that image is from the label. Click through the link to see the full label – for fascinating research purposes only, of course.

Social Issues in a Crumbling Economy

If you want to appear out-of-touch with voters, the fastest way to do that is to send the kind of flyer I received from Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy yesterday.

Background: According to the lists they have, I’m a Republican woman and have only been registered in Pennsylvania as a Republican. (This is unusual for me, as I haven’t been formally affiliated with either party since I was a teenager and initially registered in Oklahoma.) On paper, I’m dedicated enough to have voted in the Republican primary, and the last time I voted in a general, the GOP swept all of the county races. In other words, there’s nothing about my Pennsylvania voting history that indicates I’m open to their messages on either fiscal or social issues.

Every Democrat running in this state has been hammering on the economy. They know it’s what people want to hear. Yet, Murphy decided to send me a mailer that has women’s faces plastered on one side telling me that Mike Fitzpatrick will ban abortion. The other side says, “We’ve been here before.”

My response to Sebastian when I showed him the mailer this morning: “No, I’ve never been there before. I’m a Republican woman who is iffy on the abortion issue at best, and I’ve never been sitting on a dirty street with my head between my knees in a trashy looking dress.” There is literally nothing on the flyer that I can identify with – women having sex on the street, women getting abortions left and right, the fact that I know the Supremes are not going to change Roe, and there’s no serious threat to abortion in the political world right now.

Sebastian then pointed out that while there’s not a huge pro-life movement here in our district, the chances are extremely high that a woman who has registered with the Republican Party and votes in their primaries is actually an abortion opponent. He’s right about that, especially given the highly Catholic population around here. While many might overlook Murphy’s votes to fund abortions with their money, having his pro-abortion stance thrown in their face will almost certainly turn them off.

We can’t find one thing about this flyer that is remotely relevant to the issues that local voters are talking about this year. There’s nothing that’s on message to my voter file at all. I can’t even fathom what made him do this.

What Do You Do if You’re Dan Onorato?

As I was running errands yesterday, I couldn’t help but notice a very lonely Dan Onorato for Governor sign sitting in a median – no owner, no signs of friends posted immediately around it. And I got to thinking, what should a candidate like Dan Onorato do?

Last month, the County Executive had a whooping $3.3 million in the bank. When you consider we have one of the most expensive media markets in the country, and the rest of the state is spread out among a bunch of different markets, that doesn’t go terribly far in buying television advertising when you factor in all the other normal expenses in a campaign – including the “street money” to buy votes in Philly.

His opponent, Attorney General Tom Corbett, reported $7.7 million on hand. To top that off, in every single poll, he’s trouncing Onorato from 7-15 points.

So, Onorato clearly doesn’t have state recognition or voter approval, even after running a general campaign since he won a contested primary in March that gave him lots of coverage over Corbett and his lack of a serious primary. He doesn’t have enough enthusiasm to rally the base to open their wallets. Unless we end up with a live boy/dead girl scenario, this race is in the bag.

With that in mind, do you spend the money in the areas where you need high Democratic turnout to have any shot of winning? Or, do you effectively give up on the Governor’s mansion and spend in areas where you are polling poorly in an attempt to simply build name recognition for a future run for some other statewide office? What would you suggest for Onorato?

Crying Wolf Sexism

A Democratic candidate in a solidly Republican district in Virginia has had older photos of her, uh, boyfriend’s Halloween costume in her mouth. And his Halloween costume just happened to be a bright red sex toy and a leash.

Unfortunately, she’s screaming sexism. She’s convinced the media would never cover these photographs at all if she only had a penis. I would do quite a rant about why it’s not sexist to cover a political scandal, but I think the folks at Gawker said it best:

She continues: “I’m angry at the way women in this country are unfairly treated in this regard when they step up and run for office.” Because if a man sucked a rubber dick attached to the nose of another man, we would never publish that picture.

That link is also where you can find the pictures that include her posing in her revealed thigh highs, lace skirt, and drink in hand.

For the record, I realize that most reasonable people are going to have embarrassing skeletons in the closet. With the rise of digital photography and the ease of taking and storing pictures on devices that slide into your pocket, more of these types of photos will naturally be taken than they were before. These pictures don’t disqualify her for the office. They were apparently shortly after she graduated college, so it’s not surprising to see these kinds of antics among most people that age.

What I think makes her unqualified for my vote (if I had one there) is her screaming sexism where none exists. The fact is that these photos would be plastered around if she was a man. Oh, and her C rating from NRA doesn’t help her case to voters, either.

Self-Defense Opponents Won’t Give Up

I have a headache. I don’t think it was caused by beating my head against the wall over getting a simple bill like Castle Doctrine passed, but I’m pretty sure that’s why it won’t go away.

Good News: Today there should be movement in the Senate. (Link courtesy of reader Adam Z.) This is particularly important because of this is the week it has to pass to make it to the Governor’s desk.

Bad News: Reports that the anti’s just won’t give up on this one. This may mean a problem with amendments. If any amendments are added, the bill is dead. There’s no opportunity for the House to take it up again. It must be a clean bill.

Back to what makes this so infuriating: How on earth does a bill that passed the House by a 4-1 margin end up being so hard to pass through the legislature? This isn’t even a gun bill, it’s an issue of clarifying the self-defense laws!

Elections have Consequences

In this case, maybe the consequences wouldn’t quite be the end of the world if the Democrats manage to keep hold of the state House – at least for gun owners. From the always witty John Micek:

At 10 a.m. in the Media Center, Rep. Nick Kotik, D-Allegheny, puts his cart well before the horse by announcing his plan to run for House speaker next year. Have to hold onto the majority first, Representative.

Currently, the House is run by Rep. Keith McCall who is solidly pro-gun. I have no doubt that fact played a huge role in the success of moving Castle Doctrine as a clean bill yesterday. However, he announced he planned to retire after this term, so we were stuck in limbo wondering if an anti-gunner would run for Speaker. The good news is that Rep. Kotik was rated A in 2008 and even carried the endorsement in his last race.*

The downside of the Democrats holding on to the House would be in redistricting battles and the fact that committee chairs would still mostly be anti-gun folks. Moving bills would still be very hard, even with overwhelming support in the full chamber. So, even though I love my pro-gun Democrats, I’m still going to work to make sure that the House flips to Republican hands.

*Since NRA’s new PVF website removed the archives, I had to put in a request for the grade. (Hint, hint guys – I used that information for post research.)