Concealed Carry Numbers for Pennsylvania Counties

After an email exchange with Dannytheman this morning, I was reminded of a method we used to answer questions about how big the pro-gun electorate in Bucks County was during the 2010 elections. We were asked by campaign advisors who weren’t the types to turn their back on gun owners if our numbers were small, but they would have liked to have the number quantified just so they could understand priority in doing outreach during campaign season.

The first form this question takes is usually how many NRA members are in a given district. Well, we don’t know that. Not even NRA knows exactly how many they reach in a given area. (I explain the reasons for this in a post on the same topic for PAGunRights.)

Nor is there a way to calculate exactly how many gun owners there are in a standard political district. A person whose entire collection of firearms was inherited 20 years ago may make voting in defense of their rights just as much a priority as someone who recently sought out training for the first time and is buying everything new. In addition, while all firearms in a household may actually belong to one person, the family may vote along the same principles.

However, we can use concealed carry license numbers as a rough guide. These are people who take gun ownership serious enough that they undergo additional background checks and pay extra fees. They take the time out of their busy lives to stop by the sheriff’s office and wait in line for their license. Even if they aren’t putting a gun on as part of their daily routine, they care enough to make an extra effort in defense of themselves and their rights. This is a reasonable substitute to give a rough idea of the number of voters interested in hearing about a candidate’s record on the Second Amendment.

In Bucks County, that number based on the latest available data is right around 27,000. That includes the nearly 1,000 sportsmen’s firearms permits issued. Even though that is a fairly small percentage of the entire county population, it’s still a very large interest group in one region.

So, if you’re looking for a way to articulate the approximate impact of people who will be interested in a candidate’s Second Amendment record, consider using the number of licenses and permits issued as a reasonable proxy. My guess is that it still underestimates the number of people who care about the issue because of the influence of family and friends on voters, but it’s a reasonable measure to consider when having these sorts of discussions with lawmakers and candidates.

European Notions of Self-Defense

Miguel has a rather graphic story from Spain, where a bystander was hit by a ricochet and lost an eye when a police officer had to fire at a knife wielding suspect. The reaction is one I have experience with:

The prosecution is also demanding monetary compensation to Mr. Castro for the loss of the eye and to Manjon for being shot by Officer Sanchez. According to the prosecuting attorney, Officer Sanchez did not need to use his firearm to stop the attack because he could have used his night stick or talk the subject down or him and his fellow officers rush Manjon and subdue him.

I have had European people I know express this exact same sentiment in a similar circumstance. For me it’s very difficult to understand why you’d expect a police officer to risk life and limb to save the life of someone who’s decided his life isn’t worth spit. I’ve pondered whether police officers are just not very highly respected in European culture, or whether Europeans put a higher value on the lives of violent criminals. Either way, it’s difficult for an American to understand.

Retention Holsters

I think if people are going to open carry, it’s a wise idea to use a quality holster with some retention features. This is why I think it’s a wise idea. Retention holsters aren’t perfect, but they at least give you some time to react to a grab.

UPDATE: This post had no content earlier. One of the risks of blogging ahead, because I don’t have access at work, is that I can’t log in to fix things. I put this post up hastily over lunch, and then didn’t manage to find out about it until later.

DGU or Not?

Joe Huffman describes a scenario. Go ahead and read. I’ll wait. You’ll need to read to understand my take.

Given that you have a force disparity (two younger men against an older man), I tend to think that this is legitimate self-defense, and thus a DGU. But two likely unarmed men against an armed man, you may be facing charges, and likely find yourself having to argue disparity of force, which is always an ambiguous enough a situation to want to avoid.

Based on his description (15 to 20 yards as described), he’s out of the range of most less than lethals. But I would point out that given the threat “I guess I’m going to have to fuck up your camera,” would completely warrant the immediate and un-threatened use of chemical defenses, regardless of how the situation progressed from there.

Given the situation, I think this person acted prudently. But the real question, if it came down to that, is how a jury would see it. That’s the ultimate question, and the only one that matters in the end, really. That’s why I advocate carrying defense that runs the whole spectrum of force. You’re generally going to be far better off defending the use of less than lethal force than you are defending the threat of deadly force. The important thing is to have options.

Interesting HR822 Legal Questions

Andy from the comments asks, “Does HR 822 allow me to take my “high capacity” magazine to New York? Hmm… hadn’t thought about that.” That’s a good question. From my reading of the language of HR822, That’s rather questionable. Also, it would be questionable whether it would be legal, for instance, to carry hollow point ammunition in New Jersey under HR822. My feeling on both counts is that no, that you would have to abide by both the magazine limits and rules regarding hollow points, as would a resident of  both those jurisdictions.

The other side of that coin would be an argument that the law authorizes the carry of a handgun, regardless of “eligibility to possess or carry” the state may require, provided that you are not prohibited by federal law from gun possession, and have a valid license to carry. Therefore the language makes you qualified to carry a handgun, which would also, naturally, include magazines and ammunition.

I think the argument that you have to abide by rules on magazines and ammunition type is much stronger than the latter argument. If HR822 does pass, you might want to stick with New York, California, and New Jersey law on magazine capacity, and also New Jersey’s law on hollow-point bullets.

We Are the Bottom Being Raced To

I continue to be befuddled by the number of Pennsylvania news outlets condemning HR822 as a race to the bottom. All it takes to get a concealed carry license in Pennsylvania is paying less than 30 bucks, filling out a form, and waiting a week or so for the background check to clear. If this state doesn’t have reciprocity with another state, it’s because the other state donsn’t want to. Our AG is obligated to probe other states for agreements.

The Post-Gazette summons the specter of “Florida Loophole,” even though that issue is entirely a matter of state law now, and would continue to be entirely a matter of state law if HR822 were to pass.

The Irony, It Burns

I could fisk this editorial from the Philly Inquirer about the evils of concealed carry reciprocity. But most of you have heard those arguments before. Instead, I’ll just highlight a relevant point compared with some other news from today.

The NRA and its acolytes in Congress argue that this measure simply brings a degree of uniformity to concealed-carry permits in much the same way as one state honors another’s drivers’ licenses.

But the stakes are much higher, since making the right determination about who should – and should not – carry a gun is a potential matter of life and death to a degree unmatched by rules about who gets to slide behind the wheel of a vehicle.

Follow that with a report from the front lines in Philly about their crime problems:

With last night’s vehicular homicide, the kill tally in #Philly is now 302.

I look forward to tomorrow’s editorial calling for the end to the “49 state loophole” that allows drivers from other states to come into Pennsylvania with their tools of death (aka cars) that are too dangerous for Philadelphia’s streets.

Natural Selection

SayUncle notes that The City (his The City) has been having Coyote problems, and that shooting them should be an acceptable solution. I’ve never understood why this is considered unacceptable by the modern PC establishment, but then again, I’ve never really viewed humans to be apart from nature. We are the apex predator on this planet, and I don’t think that ought to be denied.

In nature, predators don’t usually tolerate the presence of other predators, so they all learn to stay out of each others way. This is a basic survival mechanism, since animals that learn to tolerate the presence of things that would like to eat it, or their young, typically aren’t going to last long. Nature just won’t select for those traits.

It’s not surprising then, that when humans start tolerating the presence of other predators, or even encouraging it, those predators will tend to lose their natural fear over time, and spread those fearless genes onto their offspring. Pretty soon you can’t leave rover out, or leave the kids out to play, without having to worry. When predators who tolerate the presence of humans are shot, they are removed from the gene pool. Nature selects only for predators that fear humans as a fellow predator, and steer clear. When you’re dealing with an animal like a Coyote, which is not endangered and adapts very well to new environments, it’s difficult for me to see why this is an issue for anyone. The Coyote is very fit for survival. Sometimes I wonder whether we are.

Mexican Carrying a Glock

Bad idea.You’d think Plaxico Burris would have taught people it was a bad idea, but fools keep doing it. Fortunately for us, this guy has removed himself from the gene pool. Guns need to be carried in holsters. This goes to show that mandatory training requirements can’t cure stupid.