Category: 2010 Election

If you aren’t registered with a major party by the end of today, then you cannot vote in the May primaries.  If you want to register, here is a list of places you can do so before the closer of business.

• County Voter Registration Office
• PennDOT photo license center
• State offices that provide public assistance and services to persons with disabilities
• Armed Forces Recruitment Centers
• County Clerk of Orphans’ Court offices, including each Marriage License Bureau
• Area Agencies on Aging
• Centers for Independent Living
• County Mental Health and Mental Retardation offices
• Student disability services offices of the State System of Higher Education
• Offices of Special Education
• DA Complementary Paratransit offices

For those of you who like to “send a message,” the primary is the best time to do it.

I posted Charlie Cook’s most recent analysis of Pennsylvania over on PAGunRights this morning.  It’s an interesting mix of green (total toss-ups), red, blue, and purple in the Keystone state this year.

Good news for the GOP: They have more solid seats up this year than Democrats. (5-4)

Good news for the GOP: The four total toss-ups (2 Congressional, 1 gubernatorial, & 1 Senate) are all currently or most recently held by Democrats, so it’s possible to make huge pick-ups.

Good news for Dems: They have more “likely” seats. (2-1)  As in, those races are still competitive, but they still lean more favorably in the incumbent’s favor.

Questionable news for Dems: They have more “lean” seats. (4-1)  On one hand, you can argue that these seats are good for them, because they are leaning Democratic.  On the other hand, the direction they are headed is toward the toss-up category, and all of their guys are incumbents.

In our backyard, it’s good to see Patrick Murphy in the danger zone marked “lean.”  On the other hand, I’m just not feeling it on the ground.  I don’t know of anyone who is enthusiastic about the likely GOP primary winner – at least outside of GOP headquarters where they are actively chasing away anyone who utters the term tea party.  These are the same folks who lost the seat and who lost the Republican registration advantage previously enjoyed in the county.  So seeing them get excited doesn’t exactly give me much hope or confidence.

Personally, I plan on directing my election work outside of the district to state level races over in Montgomery County.  The Congressional seat may be safely blue, but the state rep and senate seats are by no means safe for Democrats.

Apparently, Arlen Specter’s vision for the future of Pennsylvania includes lots of unemployed union guys drawing government checks and no modern skills. At least, that’s what you gather from his first commercial.

The company Specter highlights went into bankruptcy nearly a decade ago. It was dissolved shortly thereafter. According to Wikipedia, the company operated with substantial losses from 1982 on, with a one year exception in 1988. Their high point was in the 1950s.

Perhaps Specter wants to make Bethlehem Steel a symbol of his career. It’s high point was decades ago, and he’s been operating as the Senator everyone on both sides of the aisle loves to hate. Only this year, we have a better choice to replace him. So, Senator Specter, you can join those men in your commercial in the unemployment line come January. Although, with a little luck and some serious action by the GOP, hopefully we can turn things around to the point where the four of you can find some job training in a new field and you won’t be out of work for long.

Because there isn’t EXCEPTIONALLY MAJOR OMG-HIT THE PANIC BUTTON gun news hitting every single day in Pennsylvania, I will often post about general political engagement opportunities that are non-gunnie specific on PAGunRights.com. Obviously, most people are not single issue voters. But even when they are, there’s no reason we shouldn’t be engaged with politicians in the same way as other citizens. This last week, it just happened that three “filler” stories just happened to line up to create the perfect example of how gun owners can stand out with lawmakers from the comfort of their couches.

First, I posted the social media homes of all of the candidates. I follow all of them, and I suggest that anyone who wants to stay up-to-date on what the candidates are doing should do the same – at least until the primary election weeds it down to two candidates. (For example, Sen. Tony Williams was saying he could find a way to respect the Second Amendment while trying to get illegal guns off the street. That’s great except that his proposal involves making our carry permits worthless…) On Twitter, you can sometimes even get them to respond when you argue back or cheer them on.

Then, I found out that NUGUN managed to engage his local lawmaker on Castle Doctrine and get him on the record through an online townhall that he found out about via new media. Questions for the townhall were submitted in advance and via email during the event. How wonderfully convenient to do that before the big rally in Harrisburg this month! It now means that NUGUN doesn’t really need to spend much time in Rep. DePasquale’s office other than to introduce himself & thank him for his support. He can now spend more time on other things during the rally.

Finally, the Morning Call‘s John Micek announced a series of live lunchtime chats with all six gubernatorial candidates over the next couple of weeks. If you’ve got a computer and internet access near lunchtime on Monday, you can tune in to ask Rep. Sam Rohrer questions. On Wednesday, you can do the same for Attorney General Tom Corbett. If you decide to ask any gun- or hunting-related questions, let us know either in the comments or via Twitter @PAGunRights or @bitterb. Actually, even if you plan to tune in to ask non-gun questions, feel free to chime in through the comments. I’d be curious to find out if any readers are going to step up their political engagement on any issue with this opportunity.

(On a completely personal note, I probably will tune in, but I doubt I’ll ask anything. I’m pretty up-to-date on most of the issues because I follow this stuff so closely. For my personal preferences, I’ll probably vote for Rohrer in May as a protest vote, volunteer for Corbett between May and November, and cheer for Jack Wagner on the Democratic side in May. The latter is because he’s by far the least problematic for gun owners. He has given a squishy answer on a gun ban question before, but it was squishy enough that he could probably be convinced to change his mind and would not be likely to make it a priority if he managed to win. The other Democratic candidates were all solidly in the “end preemption” and basically tear down anything pro-gun about Pennsylvania category.)

I’ve responded in general terms to critics who say I should be “cautious” supporting Pennsylvania Democrats who are pro-gun. But since there’s a pile on from red states that implies I’m only looking out for gun rights at the expense of other limited government issues by supporting Democrats, I’m going dive into specifics and ask that said critics respond with the best way to handle each of these races.

First, I do think it’s important to note that this criticism comes from red states. Why? Because Pennsylvania isn’t one. Now, on the other hand, it isn’t Massachusetts, either. In that state, if you can find a more moderate Democrat, it’s important to support them in most districts simply because only a Democrat can get to the negotiating table to beat back gun control in the first place. Realizing that Pennsylvania is far more politically diverse, we have a luxury at looking at political decisions by district. And that’s what any good political analysis will do – consider the realities of the district and the actual candidates on the ballot.

Senate District 22
This seat is an open race due to the retirement of A+ rated Sen. Bob Mellow.

The Candidates
Here are your choices of candidates: Joseph Corcoran (D), Charles Volpe (D), Jim Wansacz (D), John Blake (D), Chris Doherty (D), Christopher Phillips (D), Frank Scavo (R). We’re supporting Rep. Wansacz as our featured candidate because he is an A rated candidate. In fact, he’s actually become even more pro-gun since he was initially elected. Meanwhile, Volpe has never held elected office before, Corcoran is a former county commissioner for the major county in the district, Phillips is a school director for the district’s largest city, Blake is a former bureaucrat, and Doherty is mayor of the largest city in the District. None of these candidates have a background that would give them a rating or voting history. However, we do have video of Doherty going on the record to end preemption and limit how many guns we could buy, something that could only be effectively instituted by creating a formal registry of gun owners. On the GOP side, Scavo is a former school director in one of the smaller towns of the district. He did previously run for this seat in 2002 and received a grade of A-, a hair lower than one of the Democratic candidates running now.

The Voting History
As the local paper put it when the Senator’s retirement was announced, this seat was never competitive. They said, “the only speculation was whether the Republican Party would make it a contested race.” In other words, the local GOP doesn’t even make an effort for this seat. Looking at the electoral history, it makes sense. Wikipedia has information dating back to the 1960s when the seat was held by a Democrat from 1963-1968. It was then held by a Republican for less than two years (not a full Senate term, not even a full House term!) from January 1969 to November 1970. Since 1971, it has been held by the same Democrat.

The Summary of Facts
So here’s what we know: There’s a competitive Democratic primary that has one good guy and one bad guy with four unknowns. Gun owners have the opportunity to sway to primary so that the pro-gun guy can win. There is no primary on the GOP side, so no one needs to worry about him until after the May primary. The last time the GOP put up a candidate, it was the same guy and he pulled in a whopping 31% of the vote – beat by more than two to one.

The Risks
If gun owners are crazy and flippant about politics like me, they have the chance to get involved in the Democratic primary and set it up so that they have a choice between candidates rated A and A-. If they are cautious and sit out of the game because it’s the evil Democratic primary, they are likely looking at a choice in the fall of F and A- with a strong likelihood that the F will win. And, like that, they will have just flipped an A+ seat into F overnight.

The Questions
So, critics, do you still encourage caution in this race? If you would sit out as a gun owner, why? What about the electoral makeup of this district or quality of the candidates would bring you to a different conclusion?

I have more examples below the fold that I would like our critics to analyze as well. Just indulge me in the game of politics. If you’re a critic of getting into bed with Democrats, I think it’s important to see a few different examples of when I would encourage people to get involved and when I think they should sit it out.
Continue reading “On “Caution” in Supporting Democrats”

Capitol Ideas is reporting that Corbett’s lead over Roher in the GOP primary is now 58-7. Rohrer can’t really come back from that, so it’s hard to see at this point how he stays in the race in all but name. It’s a shame too, because I like Sam Rohrer, but I wish he had stayed in the PA House, or moved up to the PA Senate. As I mentioned when he announced his candidacy, there’s very little precedent in Pennsylvania politics for a state representative moving up to the big chair. I hope this won’t be the end of Sam’s political career, because we need more liberty minded constitutionalists in politics, not fewer.