Category: 2010 Election

Yesterday, Instapundit said of Coakley’s campaign: “They’re just flailing now, hoping that something will work.”

He’s so very right. Yesterday afternoon I missed a call on my cell phone, but I didn’t recognize the number anyway. When I googled it since there was no message left, various forums indicate that it was a robocall for Martha Coakley – possibly even a push poll.

Yes, I have a Massachusetts phone number. But keep in mind that I have not been on the voter rolls since early 2005. I went from voting in every election there to not voting at all. I have never ever received another Massachusetts political call since leaving the state. She must be really reaching far back to try and dig up every potentially sympathetic voter she could find – even if they live outside of Philly. (I was registered as Unenrolled, though I voted in the Democratic primaries.)

It looks like defeated Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is looking to run for President in 2012. I’d certainly take Santorum over Hope and Change, but his plan, if you can call it that, needs work. Kathryn Jean Lopez has it over at The Corner:

Because you’ve been with me through thick and thin, I wanted to share this plan with you first before anyone else.  It’s this simple:

1. Reinforce our conservative allies in Congress for the next 11 months in order to slam the brakes on the Obama agenda.
2. Take back the House of Representatives in the 2010 election.
3. Lay the groundwork to defeat Barack Obama in the 2012 election.

You heard me right, XXXXXXXXXX.

See, I was really hoping I didn’t hear you right, Rick, because that’s not a plan. That’s putting the Republicans back in power, which is not a plan. Republicans, who I would point out, had six years of rule to get our house in order and failed, and Rick Santorum was part of that Republican leadership.

Santorum is a pretty consistent fiscal conservative, I’ll give him that, but I don’t think he’s presidential material, and this “plan” reinforces that. He better have seriously reinvented himself if he’s going to want me support in 2012.

It’s a difficult position Obama is in, in regards to the Massachusetts Senate race. After campaigning for Corzine in New Jersey and Deeds in Virginia, and having them both fail spectacularly, he’s going to be naturally reluctant to put his weight behind another candidate who might fail. But it looks like he’s going to go. I guess they really can’t take a chance of losing Massachusetts at this point. This article says it’s the a questionable decision, pointing out:

Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.

“Obama is radioactive in polls,” said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign’s internal numbers. “Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can’t take those kinds of chances.”

Personally, I would advise Obama to go if I were his political advisor. If he goes and loses, his presidency takes a hit from losing a Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts to the GOP. If he doesn’t go and loses, his presidency takes a hit from political failure, because the political earthquake that a Brown victory in Massachusetts would cause certainly will frustrate, if not outright derail the Administrations agenda. Everyone knows this race is important. Victory is really the only option that works for Obama, so he has to try to achieve it.

But from our perspective, there is no better way to but the kibosh on all this nonsense than by sending Scott Brown to the United State Senate, so if you live in Massachusetts, be sure to get out to vote next Tuesday for Brown.

UPDATE: More bad news for the Dems.

Democrats are probably crying in their coffee this morning with reports that a legit poll has Brown up by 4. That is within the margin of error, so it’s no assured victory. However, Geraghty notes that the numbers look right for a reasonable sample. At this point, it’s purely turnout.

Granted, lack of turnout by Republicans helped turn a red seat blue this week in Virginia – for gun owners, sent an A+ rated seat into the hands of an F rated candidate. The direct result of the election appears to be a shakeup on a key committee that may mean pro-gun reforms are stalled until the next election. No one can afford to be cocky.

In other news, it looks like the Massachusetts race has Charlie Cook re-examining a lot of other Democratic races perceived to be safe in 2010. Our own, PA-8, was just flipped from “Safe Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” We’ve got until November to swing that to “Toss Up” and the Massachusetts Senate seat made the transition from “Solid Democratic” to “Toss Up” in just 8 days.

It would appear that NRA is subtlety jumping into the Massachusetts Senate race based on their current PVF front page. (I’d screen shot it, but it’s been changing as I even link it.)

They don’t list an official endorsement, but they do remind gun owners that Sen. Scott Brown has an A rating and Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley has a solid F rating. They also put a shot of Sen. Brown up just as a friendly welcome to the page. Brown has previously been endorsed by NRA & the state affiliate in Massachusetts.

Rasmussen has Coakley up by only 2 points in the latest poll. In her desperation, she flew down to DC last night to beg lobbyists for more money. According to sources at the event, the Democrats are saying in close circles that if Scott Brown wins, health care stands a very real chance of dying where it is. Cap and trade will be more toast than it appears to be now, along with several other Democratic bills that they would try and pull out during the election year to pull their base out to the polls. In fact, Coakley herself was trying to scare fellow Democrats by saying that if she loses, no Democrat is safe in November. As Geraghty points out, the fact that she’s not safe in Massachusetts is a sign that few Democrats are really safe in 2010.

I’m kind of surprised that NRA is doing anything public for this race, even if it is just an infographic on their PVF site. Statewide, being pro-gun doesn’t help. Being anti-gun doesn’t help either. It’s just better to leave guns off the table for a large percentage of voters in Massachusetts. BUT, a robocall this weekend reminding members to vote for Scott Brown would be nice. A little GOTV effort is always useful at the last second.

UPDATE: Yeah, think this was a worthless reminder? How about this: Don’t be Virginia. There is no done deal for Republicans, conservatives, or pro-gun politicians in 2010.

Bitter did an excellent job of covering the candidate forum in our Congressional district last night, which highlighted all the folks who are lining up to challenge Democrat Patrick Murphy for his Congressional seat in 2010. I was disappointed that the Second Amendment received no consideration in the questioning of each candidate, but let’s face it, that’s not really the hot issue right now. We do have a wide selection of free market oriented candidates, but I think we need to be cautious, and make sure we’re supporting someone who can actually win. In determining what formula you need to win, it’s worthwhile to look at the district as a whole. Some facts:

• The 8th District Congressional seat flips more often than many. In the past 30 years, it’s flipped parties four times. Prior to that, it was in Republican hands from 1923 to 1977. This is not a seat either party can take for granted.
• Democrats enjoy a healthy registration advantage over Republicans in our district. Republicans can only win by two means, turnout, and carrying large numbers of independent voters. In 2010, turnout will probably work in the GOP’s favor. But I’m going to be looking for a candidate that can carry independents.
• Because our district is a swing district, I’m not too keen on a candidate who’s going to agree to term limit himself. If we can get a conservative or moderate Republican in that office, I want to keep him there as long as he can stay. Let’s not go through this again in a few years. The GOP class of 1994 had several Congressmen who made this mistake.

I’m not a rigid believer in politics by the numbers, because so much goes into winning an election, but ultimately it is about getting enough votes to win, and in our district that’s going to mean carrying independents in large enough numbers to overcome the GOPs registration disadvantage. When I hear a candidate say they want to abolish the department of education, or get rid of the home mortgage tax deduction, I might be sympathetic, but those aren’t winning issues. Murphy is going to be tough to beat, even in 2010. He has a strong support base, and a lot of money. I want a candidate that can not only beat him, but hold off strong Democratic challengers. After last night, I’m concerned we don’t have that candidate. I can see why the County GOP might want to tap Fitzpatrick again. But given that Fitz lost to Murphy in 2006, I don’t think that’s him either. The GOP in Bucks County desperately needs some new blood, and unfortunately for us, it takes time to incubate talent at the local level, before someone with experience and ambition agrees to step forward. Last night we were long on ambition, which is good, but short on political experience, which is necessary. I am optimistic, because 2010 will be a hell of a year for the GOP, but my optimism is guarded.

If you want a head start on decreasing the Democrat’s majority in 2010, I would suggest that folks consider taking part in the money bomb for Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown. On guns, he’s been good on the issues as long as I was following the minutiae of the Bay State’s gun control debates.

I don’t want to completely get your hopes up about this race. If you opened a dictionary, this would be the definition of long shot.

BUT, for those you who paid attention to the Massachusetts political scene several years ago, remember that his current Senate seat was formerly held by Cheryl Jacques. Remember her? He won that seat in a special election against her staffer, Angus McQuilken. So remember that anything is possible. So if you have a few spare bucks in your wallet today, lend a hand to the long shot campaign today. Let’s make sure that we don’t lose it because of a lack of resources in the last few days.