Category: 2012 Election

Looks like even Rand Paul can’t help himself, to the point where even the FRC doesn’t particularly appreciate the Senator’s remarks. Yeah, I can see a couple of college students making a crack like that over some beers. I can’t see a sitting United States Senator thinking that kind of humor is a wise thing. I was hoping that perhaps Rand Paul could avoid beclowning himself like his father accomplished by trawling the paelolib/paleocon fever swamp for support back in the 80s. Now, not only has Rand Paul chased the stick, but he gnawed on it so viscously, even the SoCos don’t want to play fetch with him anymore.

Tam amusingly notes that the Republican dog can always be counted on to chase the culture war stick. The fact is that there’s no better tactic for the Democrats to use this election than to get everyone all pissed off about culture war issues. The question is whether Mitt Romney will be stupid enough to chase the stick. Having been relatively socially liberal as a Governor of Massachusetts tells me he doesn’t have true SoCo instincts, but Romeny has never met an important constituency he didn’t want to pander to. Look for more of this as the election gets closer. Obama knows he can’t run on his record on fiscal issues, so culture wars it will be.

Jennifer has a long post on how she feels about this election:

Romney is a long way from who I want in office.  But he’s not running for a single term.  He doesn’t want to piss the rest of us off before his re-election. I don’t think he’s stupid either.  He’ll pander, but I think we can be the people he panders to.  And the more crap the left throws at him, the less I dislike him.

My decision isn’t set. I may find myself in agreement before November.  But for now, I think the RINO is preferable.

I do not have high expectations of Romney, but he only needs to do a few things. My anxieties about him are my overall anxieties about the things Republican tend to do when they are in power. Romney, being an excellent vessel for the same people that George W. Bush was a vessel for, did a lot of things that pissed me off, but putting Roberts and Alito on the Court were not among them.

I can understand where Jennifer is coming from. The mandate that begins in 2014, absent intervention from the Court, creeps ever closer. Most of us are not better off than we were financially four years ago, myself included. Hell, I was better off ten years ago than now. While most of that would have happened no matter who was President, this President decided to stomp his foot on the accelerator on the road that takes us off the cliff. I don’t have high expectations of Romney, but I think on fiscal issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if he does better than many would give him credit for now. If he doesn’t? We can always give him the Dick Lugar treatment in 4 years.

Jonathan Adler over at Volokh posts about assessing Gary Johnson. I think it’s a damned shame this guy disappeared from politics for so long, because when the GOP field first revealed itself, he was my guy. His candidacy didn’t last long, and to be honest, I didn’t expect it to. Dropping off the political scene entirely for ten years is essentially an end to a political career. Nonetheless, Johnson was a very successful and popular Governor of New Mexico, which is a tough state to be a Republican in.

This election he’ll be running on the Libertarian ticket now, which essentially means he doesn’t stand a chance of doing anything save winning Obama another eight years. I know when I say things like that, it pisses off a lot of Libertarian folks, but that is reality. I agree he’s the best Libertarian candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime, in terms of being a mainstream politician with actual executive experience at the state level. Presumably since he’s been a successful two term Governor, he also knows how to fund raise. But there are unfortunately, not enough libertarians in this country to carry a candidate to victory in a three way race. I could get excited about Johnson if the Democrats were fielding centrist candidates, but a surging Libertarian movement through the Libertarian party is going to mean the left get several more decades to drive the country closer to a European-style social democracy, which over the not-so-long run is going to mean the country goes bankrupt, and people will be burning money for warmth long before that.

The only way Libertarians can win elections in a winner-takes-all system is to coalition within one of the major parties. If we had a parliamentary system, that would happen as part of the government. In our system, it happens in extra-governmental political parties. Ron Paul was never going to accomplish that. Gary Johnson could have ten years ago, but not in 2012. I’m still waiting for our White Buffalo; someone who can carry libertarian principles and still hold on to social conservatives in the GOP, or someone who can forge a new movement for libertarian ideas in the Democratic party. That would take courage from a species of man who is normally uncourageous. It would take leadership from a type of people who are poor leaders. It will also take a willingness of libertarian-leaning people to understand there aren’t enough of them to carry majorities without forming coalitions with other interests. Can it happen? I think it could. But not this election.

No matter what else happens this election cycle, there are at least politicians out there who’s uppance has finally come. Dick Lugar can now be added to that list. There was never any universe where Hoosiers needed to tolerate being represented by a guy who didn’t even think enough of the Second Amendment to sign on to the Heller brief.

UPDATE: Scott Walker is on the verge of doing better than the entire Democratic field in a Democratic primary.

UPDATE: While President Obama has won the West Virginia Primary, he did lose at least 40% of the vote and 5 7 whole counties to Democratic challenger Keith Judd, Federal Inmate number 11593-051, serving a federal prison sentence of 17 and a half years for extortion in the Federal Correctional Institution in Texarkana

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty of NRO: “I’m sure this night could have gone worse for Democrats, I’m just trying to think of how.”

The media doesn’t seem to want to let this issue die, but then again, it would seem that neither does Ted Nugent. Is it good for Romney, or bad for Romney? I tend to think that Romney is better off without the controversy, but Romney also has a hard time reaching the kind of people Ted Nugent reaches.

A lot of people seem to be making a big deal out of Romney meeting with Bloomberg, and I’ve heard a few speculate that perhaps Bloomberg will be Romney’s VP pick. That gave me a strange sense of Deja Vu. This isn’t something I’d read all that much into. If you’re a Presidential Candidate, and you make a trip to New York City, you’re pretty much obligated to drop in on the mayor. It’s just politeness. Even I wouldn’t turn my nose up at the Mayor, and if I met with him, I’d certainly talk about gun control.

I was initially a lot more concerned about Bork on his judicial advisory committee, but a lot of folks in the comments noted that Alan Gura is also on the committee, and that in DC, these things are mostly a way to signal to different parts of the base. In other words, they are BS.

It’s pretty clear over at places such as Uncle and Robb (the last one is really funny, go click), that Mitt Romney isn’t lighting the gun blogosphere ablaze with enthusiasm. I think the problem is that Mitt Romney is not the savior of the Republic at a time when people feel like the Republic needs one.

I recall a conversation we had with one of Bitter’s lobbyist friends when campaign 2012 was just getting started. Her friend noted that Romney was surrounding himself with the same people Bush did, and Bush Part III and Part IV are certainly not what we really need right now.

So I set my expectations for Romney low. All I’m looking for Romney to do is to replace the Chicago machine with the devil we know. I’m looking for him to make better Supreme Court and Federal Court appointments than Obama would, and I’m looking for the White House to remain accountable to voters, and have to stand for re-election in four years. That’s all I’m really expecting. I think Romney can probably also be counted on to, at least, ease off the accelerator a bit to give us more time in the game to see if we draw a winning hand in the future.

It’s worth noting that both parties are making attempts to purge their moderates. Dick Lugar is increasingly looking like he’s going down in Indiana, and the defeat of blue dog Democrats Tim Holden by a much more left-wing challenger, and the defeat of Jason Altmire by a more left-center candidate, are actually pretty remarkable in politics. This doesn’t happen often, and when it does, politicians take notice. This will be an opportunity for both parties to grow new leadership.

But that doesn’t necessary portend good things, having both parties polarized. I’m not sure where having the GOP lead far right and the Dems leading far left is going to lead. If we fight culture wars, the Democrats tend to win independents. But if we’re arguing about deficits, spending and the economy, Independents tend to follow the GOP.

But will the GOP be smart enough not to fight culture wars while we drive off the fiscal cliff? Like Nixon going to China, the Democrats are probably the only ones who can defuse the entitlement bomb. Will a far left Democratic Party be able to accomplish that? Will the GOP have political cover from Independents to do it over the objections of the left? I don’t really know. A lot is going to happen in the next decade. All I’m counting on Romney to do is give it time to play out, while we solidify our Second Amendment protections through the courts.