It Won’t Save You

Democrats refusing to vote for Corzine because of his crusade to bring gun rationing to the Garden State. As we’ve been saying for a while, gun control isn’t an issue that can salvage a political career, even in New Jersey. It really is the last refuge of scoundrels.

Hat Tip to Dave Adams

Getting Ahead of Ourselves

Cemetery reports that some Garden State Gunnies are getting all excited about the prospects of CCW since the election of Chris Christie. Three words, “ain’t gonna happen.” The fact of the matter is, no matter what Steve Lonegan told New Jersey gun owners in the primary, there is no support in the Assembly or Senate to pass a shall-issue bill. Gun owners would be mistaken to look towards Chris Christie as their savior, or knight in shining armor. He’s not. He is your star goalie. His job is merely to keep the opposing team from scoring goals until you can get your team back in the game. It is not realistic to expect anything more from him.

In short, there’s a lot of work to do in the Garden State. You got rid of one anti-gun Assemblyman in Fred Madden’s district and replaced him with a pro-gunner. You have to keep doing that, until you have the votes to expect more from Chris Christie. Until then, you can’t expect him to put his political capital on the line for a fight he’s not going to win. Understand what Christie is. Understand his role. And work on getting your team back in the game.

What Chris Christie’s Victory Could Mean

Looking at the tallies over in New Jersey, it’s pretty amazing, and should give the Democratic Party some pause. Democrats have been very successful at making gains among middle class suburbanites, and among the very wealthy, especially in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the West Coast. Most of this was because Bill Clinton captured a lot of the issues those voters cared about from the Republican Party, such as balanced budgets, free trade, and welfare reform. Following up with George W. Bush, who was very successful at continuing to drive suburban Republicans and Independents more into the Democratic camp, made the situation even worse. That might be changing based on the numbers I’ve seen. Let’s look at some of the counties in New Jersey:

  • Bergen County: Borders New York City. Ought to be a blowout for Corzine. Corzine wins, but only by 2.2% points. Obama took this county by 9 points in 2008.
  • Middlesex County: Located in Northeast New Jersey. Christie took this county by 3.7% points. In 2008, Obama took this county by 21 percentage points.
  • Somerset County: Located just west of Middlesex Co. Christie won by 22 percentage points. Obama took this county in 2009 by 7 points.
  • Mercer County: Richest county in the state, located adjacent to Bucks County, PA in central New Jersey. Contains Trenton and Princeton. Corzine still won, but only by 16%. Obama took Mercer County by an amazing 37 points.
  • Monmonth County: Located in central New Jersey, along the shore. Contains Asbury Park. Christie won by 31 points. This county did go for McCain in 2008, but only by 3 percentage points.
  • Burlington County: Across from Philadelphia, largely a suburb of Philadelphia. Chris Christie took it by 2.6 percentage points. In 2008, Obama took this county by 19 points.
  • Camden County: Across from Philadelphia. Home to the scenic City of Camden. Corzine won this county by 14 points, but Obama won it by 37 points.
  • Gloucester County: South Jersey. Across from Delaware County, PA, and New Castle County, DE. Christie took it by 3.4 percentage points despite Obama winning by 13 points.
  • Salem County: Across from Delaware, South Jersey. Christie by 6.5%. Obama took Salem County by 4 points.
  • Atlantic County: Along the South Jersey shore, north of Cape May County. Historically regarded as a Republican County, Obama managed to take it by a surprising margin of 15 points, but Christie won it by 3.5 points.

Looking at vote totals, this is almost entirely a story of Democratic voters just not showing up to the polls. Considering how much capital Obama and the Dems dumped into saving Corzine, and how much money Corzine spent on this race, it is not at all good news for Democrats to have lost so much ground. Combine this with Republican showings in the ring counties around Philadelphia just across the river, and it spells out of a story of GOP voters, and Independent voters who lean GOP being far more motivated to show up to the polls. In New Jersey, the counties where Democrats lost the most are just the type of middle class suburban counties that Democrats have made significant gains with. The erosion of support in very wealthy counties like Mercer show that Democrats need to be worried about their support among the rich too, even though they were still able to win there. That might not be the case in wealthy counties that aren’t as strongly blue.

Next we’ll take a look at how the GOP fared in the Philadelphia ring counties.

Hey, Obama & Pelosi

Middle Finger

I get no points for class or maturity, I know. But I think a little gloating every now and then is good for our Republic, and considering how much work I put into the 2008 election, only to suffer loss and discouragement, I get to gloat over this.

GOP sweep in a landslide in Virginia, and Corzine is out, and by a lot more than anyone thought. Apparently in New Jersey, we also turned a few Assembly seats, including one in Fred “One-Gun-A-Month” Madden’s district. It’s an awful repudiation of Obama and Pelosi’s agenda, and when combined with the New York Mayors race, which was far closer than anyone thought, shows that beating on the gun control drum doesn’t really help you much.

If Blue Dogs aren’t crapping their pants yet, they ought to be. The 2010 elections are only a year away, and Corzine’s defeat by nearly 5 points shows that Obama can’t be counted on to save you, even in a very blue state!

Starting Already

Allegations of voter fraud in the New Jersey race:

At least four voters have approached the Feliz campaign to complain that an absentee ballot was sent to them without their permission or cast for them without their understanding the documents they were signing. I spoke with Uremia Rojas who reports that “a man with a clipboard knocked on my door and had me sign something so I could vote by mail. I was skeptical but signed and got a ballot. I never really wanted one.” Says Mr. Negron: “We believe this to be underhanded and a possibly illegal strategy by the Democratic Party to undermine the civil rights of the residents of Camden.”

There are additional reports from Camden that Hispanic voters have been misled into voting absentee ballots. So-called bearers who are allowed to collect and carry absentee ballots are said to have encouraged voters to fill out applications for absentee ballots. A few days later, the bearers reportedly return with the actual ballots, which they offer “assistance” in filling out.

I  know you’ll be shocked, shocked to hear this, but ACORN is apparently involved.

After repeated election-related scandals, Acorn has become toxic for many candidates who once relied on the group. But Acorn’s longtime allies, the Service Employee International Union and New York’s Working Families Party, have both moved into New Jersey

It’s crap like this that made the upper middle class peoples of the Philadelphia suburbs turn away from the Democratic Party and remain Republicans. Perhaps one of the aspects of Obama’s legacy will be to destroy the groundwork laid by Bill Clinton and have a lot of suburban voters go back to their roots.

One Fool or Another

It’s that time again, folks. Election Day. I would especially like to remind my New Jersey readers to get out to vote. It’s important Corzine doesn’t win, both for the gun issue, and for greater struggles against bigger and more intrusive government. The eyes of the country will be on New Jersey this evening. Well, at least those who aren’t watching the World Series.

For those in Virginia, Bob McDonnell won’t win if people don’t turn out to actually vote for the guy. Despite my hopes that Deeds was just running to the left for the primary, he’s stuck by his gun show loophole position, and needs to be sent packing. Also vote Ken Cuccinelli for Attorney General.

If we get Hoffman in NY-23, send Christie to Trenton, and elect Bob McDonnell governor, with significant Dem losses across the board, it will put the fear of God into the blue dogs, and will make the passage of Pelosi and Obama’s agenda much more difficult.

NJ Superior Court Ruling on Gun Permits

The ruling can be found here in PDF format. There’s a lot of things to say about it. For one, it gives you an idea of what one must go through to get all the required licenses to get a gun in New Jersey. It looks like the problem for this guy started when one of his references said something negative. Eventually they decided to go this route:

At the end of oral argument on the appeal, the trial court asked the parties whether they would have any objection to the court communicating directly with appellant’s former employers regarding his fitness to own a gun. The parties consented to this unusual procedure.

Apparently that didn’t go well for him either, as his previous associates said he was a nut job, and shouldn’t have a gun. This is a bad plaintiff to make a constitutional challenge, unfortunately, but probably the biggest risk to our gun rights is cases like this being moved forward. There are plenty of people that get kicked around by NJ’s system that would make far more sympathetic plaintiffs. But let’s get back to the case:

We conclude that the trial court’s conduct of the proceedings on the appeal from the denial of appellant’s application for a permit to purchase firearms did not conform with the requirements of procedural due process set forth in Weston. Therefore, the order affirming the denial of that application must be reversed and the matter remanded for a rehearing conducted in conformity with Weston.

So essentially the guy won, because the trial court did not follow the legal procedure in order to approve or deny permits. But the court also addressed the constitutional issued raised. The issue was one of vagueness, arguing that a previous New Jersey ruling upholding the “unfit persons” standard needed to be reconsidered in light of Heller.

However, the Court expressly indicated that its holding did not require invalidation of statutes that require a license to purchase or possess a firearm.

The Court did not require it because it was not at issue in the case. The New Jersey Superior Court has before it a direct challenge to an aspect of licensing. It’s not intellectually serious to so casually dismiss the constitutional issue, as if the Court in Heller had upheld licensing. Licensing wasn’t before that court, it is before this court. So you can’t act as if they upheld licensing. They did not.

The appellant in this case also challenged based on the time it took to issue a denial. Court in New Jersey have long held the statutory requirement that permit be issued within 30 days is effectively without meaning.

Moreover, we do not believe the Legislature could have intended that a person who is unfit to own a firearm would be able to obtain a firearms purchaser permit based on such an automatic approval. Our gun control laws have the purpose of “keeping firearms out of the hands of all dangerously unfit persons, noncriminal as well as criminal.” Burton v. Sills, supra, 53 N.J. at 94; see also Heller, supra, ___ U.S. at ___, 128 S. Ct. at 2816-17, 171 L. Ed. 2d at 678 (noting that “nothing in our opinion should be taken to cast doubt on longstanding prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill”). This salutary purpose would be seriously undermined if a person could obtain a permit to purchase a firearm based solely on a court’s failure to conduct a hearing within the thirty-day period required by N.J.S.A. 2C:58-3(d).

Except Heller does not support what you specifically mentioned New Jersey’s gun control laws were meant to do, which was “keeping firearms out of the hands of all dangerously unfit persons, noncriminal as well as criminal.” Heller didn’t say “longstanding prohibitions against on the possession of firearms by noncriminals the police say are dangerous.” There’s an element of having to be convicted or adjudicated in the Heller language, which this man was not.

Pretty clearly the Superior Court was not interested in taking Heller seriously, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see that kind of attitude coming out of a New Jersey court. New Jersey’s gun laws are a disaster for lawful gun owners, but the unfortunate thing for Garden State gunnies is there’s a lower hanging fruit out there. The real danger is that inexperienced people will begin challenging New Jersey laws immediately, before we’ve had a chance to get that low hanging fruit.  After which we’ll have more tools at our disposal to go after New Jersey’s permitting system, among other things.

Distortions in New Jersey Ruling

SayUncle covers a media story that distorts a NJ Superior Court ruling that said NJ’s licensing and permitting system did not violate Heller.  One thing about New Jersey law though, the permits to purchase for handguns, and the FID card, are all shall-issue in New Jersey by law. Police can’t arbitrarily deny. The problem in New Jersey is the law that says they have to be issued within a certain period of time, and the police routinely ignore it. The courts in New Jersey generally aren’t all that interested in making the police follow the law. If you qualify for an FID or Purchase Permit in NJ, you will eventually get it, if you’re willing to follow through with things. But it can take a while. Years if you have a really bad local PD.

Looking up in New Jersey

Chris Christie has been in a dead heat in the polls, but some newer ones show he might be retaking a lead. I think it’s going to depend on turnout in the Garden State, so lets hope turnout for our side is high next week. Aside from the gun issue, it’ll be important in putting the brakes on the Dem agenda in Congress to have them lose both NJ and VA.

New Jersey Gov Race

Jim Geraghty reports on how the gun issue is playing in the New Jersey Governor’s race. Truth is that Christie isn’t really our guy, but it’s an improvement moving to someone who isn’t going to gun owners as a punching bag. Get some breathing room, then work on the legislature. I would encourage all Garden State gun owners to get out and vote for Christie. Volunteer for him if you can. Don’t expect miracles, but he’ll be an improvement over Corzine.