Pennsylvania – Page 23 – Shall Not Be Questioned

How Close is Pennsylvania – Really?

I’ve been pretty vocal about people who are just absolutely convinced that the GOP candidates for Senate & President will win Pennsylvania. Usually this is because everyone they know – who just happens to lean right – is going to vote for candidates on the right. Shocking. It’s a matter of selection bias, and it isn’t based in reality.

However, there are some things I’m seeing that leave me wondering if the polls are actually showing a much wider gap than really exists. One is a graphic Mitt recently posted on Facebook that noted his campaign has made 5 times as many phone calls and knocked on 45 times more doors by this time in the campaign than McCain’s team had in 2008.

Consider that Mitt’s got that much higher turnout of grassroots energy and he hasn’t been spending the money here like McCain did. McCain was spending like Pennsylvania was a seriously competitive state. Both campaigns have largely been ignoring Pennsylvania. Though Mitt did test the waters a bit with a big rally in one of the Philly suburbs recently.

But then I also see tweets like this from the left.

Just spoke to a few hundred excited volunteers from New York all members of SEIU. In Philly to canvass for The President #forward 2012

â€” Tony Payton Jr. (@TonyPaytonJr) October 6, 2012

Fun times in Hazleton! Thanks @ofa_ny for the good times and hard knocks!#pa2012 instagr.am/p/P5R5SEIfTU/ â€” Jane Slusser (@janeslusser) September 22, 2012

It seems odd to me that the Obama campaign would spend the money to bring in New Yorkers for a state that they are so confident they’ll win – and win big.

One thing that these little signs could reflect is that the polls have poor turnout models. Yes, truly more people may like Obama over Romney in Pennsylvania. But, the Obama voters may not feel very motivated at all to vote. And clearly Romney’s campaign has more energy than expected.

This year may be the year of quiet campaigning in Pennsylvania. We’re seeing far fewer yard signs out this year than any other year – even non-presidential races. In fact, where there were previously dozens, now there are none. Yet, we still hear from most people on the right that they are more motivated to vote than they were before. We also have more gun owners interested in helping campaigns than we have had in the past. It’s all kinda weird. I think the final numbers have a potential to be far more interesting than the polls show. I won’t go so far as to say that Mitt will win Pennsylvania, but it could be a closer race than people expected based off polling.

Pennsylvania Dreamin’ on Such a Summer’s Day

You’re starting to hear conservative celebration that the recent ruling in Commonwealth Court, upholding voter ID, is a game changer. It is not. Philadelphia will not enforce this law. Election officials outside of Philadelphia won’t even enforce the law. Voters in Philadelphia, or any other jurisdiction that Republicans think are rife with voter fraud, will easily be allowed to vote without any ID come November. I would put real money on that. This law will simply not be enforced in jurisdictions that are hostile to it.

Anyone who is involved, or has been involved, in gun rights in this Commonwealth should know what the pertinent question is; how are you doing to enforce this law? The law itself, without enforcement and subsequent penalties actually applied, is no better than smudges of ink on parchment. We’ve seen this with the number of local jurisdictions willing to extend a middle finger to the state’s firearms preemption laws, or by local jurisdictions inventing extralegal requirements for exercising constitutional rights. We are well familiar with this.

The Voter ID law will be ignored by those it is meant to target, and they will do this with impunity. Enforcement of election law is done entirely at the local level by poll watchers, and without honest people on the ground, this is never a problem that will get solved. That leads me to believe the solution to this problem lies in creating more transparency, and better reporting and enforcement mechanisms for reporting real voter fraud. One has to address that problem first, before deciding that a top-down solution out of Harrisburg is all it takes to fix the problem.

There are more outlets than ever that accept reports from voters about irregularities and violations. Hell, even the Philly MSM picked up voter reports of one of their incumbent darlings illegally campaigning inside polling locations. In Philadelphia, there’s Committee of Seventy which was gathering reports of voter ID violations on Primary Day. The Daily News published the account about the illegal campaigning by an incumbent Democrat. There’s @electionjournal which publishes accounts of election problems. The internet-only PA Independent might accept reports, as well as Daily Caller for national scale. It’s very handy that most of these can be reached with a simple smartphone.

Of course, if voters witness something egregious, the fastest way to make a real impact is likely to call the local leaders of the opposition party. They have lawyers on call for just this kind of situation.

Could Election Fraud Issues Impact Races for Pro-Gun Folks?

When most people think of the voter fraud issue in Pennsylvania, they think of Philadelphia. With turnout running over 100% in some precincts in local-only election primaries, it’s no wonder the city has become the face of election fraud in the Commonwealth. So, outside of statewide races, it’s not something that most people would think impacts races with pro-gun votes since pro-gun candidates don’t run serious, competitive campaigns in Philadelphia.

However, there’s some kind of likely election law violation going on in Berks County which is home to portions of the districts of three pro-gun Congressional incumbents, two of whom are in somewhat competitive races.

An investigation into an unspecified violation of state election law began Thursday at the direction of the Berks County Board of Elections.

They note that the three Commissioners on the board aren’t talking, and the Democrat had to sit out of the vote on whether or not to investigate because of a conflict of interest. The District Attorney says that it’s best to have the outside investigator, and they claim that releasing any information about the investigation whatsoever will jeopardize it.

I have no idea whether the Berks County case is anything that could possibly be influenced by the new law this year over voter ID requirements, but preplanned violations of that new election law by both election officials and voters are have already been announced around the suburbs of Philadelphia.

Christopher L. Broach, a Democratic inspector of elections in the tiny borough of Colwyn, said he would not ask voters to prove who they are on Election Day. …

Though Broach is the only official publicly taking such a stance, Philadelphia’s nonpartisan Committee of Seventy received a call from a Pittsburgh poll worker saying he, too, plans not to demand photo ID from voters he knows. The law has set off defiant talk among voters as well, with a few vowing to vote without the required forms of photo ID.

An echo could be heard in Lower Merion Township. “No, I will not enforce it,” said Joe Breidenstein, 55, a Democratic judge of elections in Ardmore.

Part of Ardmore is in a competitive district for a key pro-Second Amendment vote in Congress. So this isn’t just an urban problem for the typically corruption-plagued city of Philadelphia. Violating election laws is now a planned method of potentially swaying the outcomes of elections in the suburban areas in ways that can cost us valuable seats in Congress.

Adjust Your Tin Foil Hats Accordingly

We’ve got west nile in the county, and that means helicopters flying overhead spraying chemicals to keep a lid on the mosquito population. Or… maybe that’s just what they want you to think! I hear one now. I feel calmer already. I don’t know why everyone is so angry at this Obama guy. Joe Biden is smart.

A Violation of Pennsylvania Law by Philadelphia

From the Philly Post:

Last weekend, Philadelphiaâ€™s Department of Licenses and Inspections, an agency not usually known for its transparency and user-friendliness, unveiledÂ a new web appÂ that displays licensing, permit and violation information on a (relatively) easy-to-use interactive map.Â One of the more interesting aspects to this new data transparency is an array of gun permit appeals, essentially aÂ list of Philadelphians who have been denied a gun permit or had their permit revoked and who have appealed to have the decision overturned.

This is completely illegal, and there are penalties. Allow me to point you to the Uniform Firearms Act of Pennsylvania, and the Pennsylvania Code. From the UFA:

(i) Confidentiality.–All information provided by the potential purchaser, transferee or applicant, including, but not limited to, the potential purchaser, transferee or applicant’s name or identity, furnished by a potential purchaser or transferee under this section or any applicant for a license to carry a firearm as provided by section 6109 shall be confidential and not subject to public disclosure. In addition to any other sanction or penalty imposed by this chapter, any person, licensed dealer, State or local governmental agency or department that violates this subsection shall be liable in civil damages in the amount of $1,000 per occurrence or three times the actual damages incurred as a result of the violation, whichever is greater, as well as reasonable attorney fees.

If I were one of these people listed, I’d be filing the lawsuit right now. This is unconscionable. The criminals that run that city clearly think they are above the law. I say we ought to show them who can get away with what. I count at least $29,000 dollars worth of violations here, and attorneys fees will probably drive that higher by orders of magnitude. They should be made to pay for this.

A Little 2012 Newsflash

I think there’s a difference between “we’re winning” in the cultural sense and “we’re winning” in the political sense. I don’t think I need to remind people that sometimes something that is highly unpopular and opposed by many people can “win” in the political sense. *cough*Obamacare*cough*

Sebastian already pointed out that we have a Democrat who represents a more suburban/rural part of Pennsylvania running on a platform of gun bans and ammunition control – and he’ll win his race without putting out any serious effort this November!

If my list is up-to-date, we’ll have lost 23 lawmakers in Harrisburg to legislative retirements throughout 2012. Twelve of those are A or A+ rated by NRA. When I went to look up their last opponents to get an idea of what the new races could mean for gun owners, 2/3 of those districts were last challenged by declared or presumed anti-gunners. Folks, that’s an awful lot of pro-gun votes to have at risk.

Think about what a battle it was for us to pass the last Castle Doctrine measure here in Pennsylvania – that fight went across multiple governors. That was simply Castle Doctrine that allows you to defend yourself on your own property, and yet gun owners had to work very had to make that happen. I personally don’t think we can afford to lose any allies in Harrisburg if a simple self-defense bill took so much time and energy.

Culturally, we’re making progress. Politically, we’re still at a very dangerous time for gun rights in many areas.

The Truth About ARs

I’m glad to see outdoor writers clearing the air in regards to AR rifles, and telling the truth about them, including explaining the recent surge in sales. Looks like they interviewed State Rep. Bryan Cutler for this article, speaking of his bill, H.B. 347, which would open the door to legal semi-auto rifle hunting in Pennsylvania:

State Rep. Bryan Cutler, of Peach Bottom, is one hunter and gun enthusiast who joined the AR craze.Â Cutler built his own .223-caliber AR by getting the various parts and creating a custom gun.Â “That’s something I just always wanted to do,” he said.Â Cutler uses his AR for target shooting, and hopes to one day shoot it competitively.Â “I’ve always had an interest in the three-gun competition, so maybe I’ll get into that somewhere down the road when my schedule allows it.”

In a three-gun competition, shooters work through a tactical course, firing a handgun, shotgun and AR rifle at targets.Â Cutler also hopes to someday be allowed to use his AR for hunting varmints and predators in Pennsylvania.Â He’s a co-sponsor of House Bill 347, which would legalize the use of “any semi-automatic rimfire rifle, .22 caliber or less, for the taking of coyotes, foxes or woodchucks,” the bill states.Â The bill is intended to crack the door for using semi-automatic rifles for hunting here.

I’d work hard to keep any politician that was actually interested in three gun and built his own AR. That’s a rare breed in politics. His bill only legalizes semi-auto rimfire in .22 or less, and obviously we’d eventually like to see centerfire semi-automatic rifles hunting legal in Pennsylvania, but baby steps. Read the whole article. It’s pretty refreshing to see something like this in the main stream media.

Good Political Sense

I really have to wonder about the Democrat running against Mike Fitzpatrick in our Congressional district. She is having a fundraiser at a nightclub that has stripping nights & sexually-themed group contests. Even more interesting is that the fundraiser was promoted with the poster for said stripping nights & sexually-themed contests, though the Party wants you to be assured that they aren’t taking place the same night.

I am very tempted to put this in the “Politicians Suck” category on this site, but I fear with the “deep throat contest” advertised alongside her fundraiser, well, that could be taken in a completely new light.

We Are Entering a Dangerous Time for our Gun Rights

Our opponents have been speaking of a groundswell of support coming to their side since the two mass shootings, and getting uppity that our day in the sun will soon be at and end, and that they will proceed to destroy our precious right. That’s a lot of nonsense, but that’s not to say things are all coming up roses. As long as the Democratic Party had to protect its blue dog flank, speaking about gun control, even for deep blue state politicians, was going to be problematic.

The Blue Dog flank was all but destroyed in the 2010 midterms, and the base of support Democrats often enjoy among Independents is looking weak. The Democrats can’t honestly afford to have an unenthusiastic base, so they are circling the wagons and trying to defend what they have. Governor Quinn is now enthusiastically supporting another Assault Weapons Ban in Illinois, and facing off against the NRA, ISRA, and downstate gun makers. Andrew Cuomo, once a staunch supporter of gun control and architect of the strategy in the 90s for HUD to sue gun makers, eventually settling with Smith & Wesson, has been timid about supporting gun control as Governor so far. That no longer appears to be the case.

Democrats in blue states are re-embracing gun control. Cuomo’s plan would appear to be an attempt to snatch the number one Brady spot from California, and California is obviously advancing more draconian gun bansÂ of its own. Some folks might suggest that this is bad news only for the states whose gun laws already suck, but a prevailing Democratic culture of gun control is going to screw us over the long term here in Pennsylvania. Everyone in this state should be particularly concerned that we lost Tim Holden, a solid pro-gun Democrat, to a far left radical anti-gunner in a primary:

Democrat Matt Cartwright, a Scranton lawyer, said he does support an assault weapons ban, saying Americans don’t need such weapons in their homes. He would also support “reasonable” ammunition purchase limits, according to a statement released by his campaign.

Cartwright said he is strongly in favor of Americans’ right to bear arms.

This isn’t a Philadelphia Democrat, folks, this is Schuylkill County! I’ve long believed Pennsylvania is a hair’s breath from becoming strongly anti-gun, just like New York and New Jersey. Why? The western part of Pennsylvania has traditionally been our bulwark against gun control in this state, and the western part of Pennsylvania is rapidly depopulating. In addition, both Northeastern Pennsylvania and Southeastern Pennsylvania are taking a lot of transplants from New Jersey and New York. The Philadelphia suburbs are growing and becoming more left-leaning and Democratic. Even Philadelphia has stopped losing population. Pennsylvania as a whole is getting less purple, and more blue, and given that Democratic political culture is starting to swing anti-gun, our gooses may end up cooked. The political center of the fight for gun rights in Pennsylvania is going to swing from the West to the East, and while there are plenty of gun owners in the suburbs here, I’ve never gotten the impression very many of them will stand up and fight, or quite honestly lift a finger to help promote a healthy shooting community. We are poorly equipped for the fight that’s coming, and we’ll be able to depend on our western brethren less and less as changing demographics keep reshaping this commonwealth.

I Love the Smell of a Little (near) Civil Disobedience

It isn’t quite civil disobedience since it was still legal at the time, but I loved reading this story at PA Water Cooler earlier this month about some politicians encouraging folks to fight against the nanny state:

The Council voted to ban barbecue grills within five feet of homes, any combustible material, or property lines. Got a wooden deck? Then youâ€™ll either have to move your grill or teach it how to levitate. Otherwise youâ€™re a criminal.

Fortunately, Mayor George Doscher chose to veto it because apparently his head is screwed on straight. Good for him. Not to be outdone, though, the Bellevue Council doubled down and overrode the veto! …

The mayor and Councilwoman Kathy Coder (who is also running for the State House and you should totally check out her website and throw some cash her way) led a good old-fashioned civil disobedience event by holding a still-legal-for-now cookout in front of the Borough Building. The mayor even wore a chefâ€™s hat.