Category: Pennsylvania

From Capitol Ideas:

Speaking from Summerdale, Cumberland County, yesterday, Rendell urged the young’uns to mount a Children’s Crusade by signing an online petition supporting the legalization of tens of thousands of video poker terminals to raise roughly $500 million for higher education grants.

Read the whole thing.  I’m wholly in agreement with Rendell on the liberalization of the state’s gambling laws, but I think it’s odd to employ children in the promotion of it.  Lame duck Ed is a lot more interesting than needs to win an election Ed.  I will say that.  Perhaps next Rendell can tell kids to convince their parents to drink more in order to bring in even more money the state can use for education.

Capitol Ideas is reporting that Specter beats Pat Toomey 53-33 percent in the general, but Tom Ridge matches up with Specter at 46 percent and Ridge at 43 percent.  Like I’ve said before, incumbents have a sky high reelection rate, which is why it makes sense for NRA to endorse Specter if he holds his position on the Second Amendment and keeps voting that way.

As much as I would like to see Pat Toomey off Sarlen Arlen in the 2010 election, it’s not likely to happen.  I think Toomey could improve his polling numbers if he plays his politics right for Pennsylvania, but if Ridge throws his hat into the primary, he’s going to have to run to the right of Ridge (how’s that for alliteration?).  I think Toomey’s fortunes depend on him avoiding a rough primary, and even if he manages that, he has an uphill fight.

Of course, it’s not out of the question that Specter will face a stiff primary challenge from the left as well, so I’d be hard pressed to suggest this race is over before it starts.  Time will tell.

Via Grassroots PA, it looks like they are clearing the way for Specter on the Democratic side.  State Representative Josh Shapiro is ruling out running now, and so is Allyson Schwartz.  Grassroots PA also reports Sestak isn’t rulling out a primary challenge, and Sestak is a big enough asshole to do it.  Apparently Torsella is also staying in.

If Specter is too progressive for Pennsylvania Republicans, he’s probably too conservative for a lot of Democratic primary voters.  I would be surprised if Specter doesn’t face anyone in the primary, but we’ll see.  The Democratic Party seems to be getting behind Specter, so anyone who does run won’t likely have the backing of the party leadership.

There’s a lot of speculation that Specter can’t really be trusted on the gun issue, because of his betrayal of the Republican Party and of conservatism.  It’s certainly a possibility he’ll abandon his positions on guns, but I don’t think it’s likely.  One mistake folks should not make when it comes to politicians, is believing they have any loyalty to anything beyond keeping their seats.

From that point of view, Specter’s move is perfectly rational.  Polling is making it abundantly clear he can’t survive politically in Pennsylvania as a Republican.  He could have waited to see whether that changed, but switching parties late in the game wouldn’t give him any time to build support among Democrats, and to raise money through those circles.  When viewed through the lens of “What do I need to do to stay in office,” switching parties was really the only choice, and now is probably the right time.

The question for Specter is whether he views his record on guns as an asset, or a liability.  If Specter faces a serious primary challenger from the left, he might view it as a liability.  If I were Specter, I would look at it this way: his NRA endorsement is the one asset that he can take with him across the aisle.

But wait?  Republicans will never vote for him whether he carries an NRA endorsement or not!  True, but Pennsylvania is not generally a red state.  It’s a blue state, generally pro-gun, and it’s worthwhile noting that Specter has never been a conservative and has always had a lot of support among Democrats, and many of those Democrats appreciate his stance on the Second Amendment.  Pennsylvania has a lot of A rated pro-gun Democrats.  The last thing Arlen Specter will want is to tempt those Democratic voters to cross the aisle and vote for his opponent.

If I had to put money on it, I’d bet Specter stays good on guns.  It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong if he doesn’t, but this also isn’t New York.  Specter’s party switch is a cold political calculation aimed at keeping his seat, and in that case, the same calculation should also make him want to keep his endorsement.

The State House passed a bill yesterday that would address the cell phone while driving issue.

Ross’s proposal would impose additional fines for a person cited for careless driving if they were found, among other things, to be reading, eating, grooming, or gabbing on a cell phone. Unlike Rep. Josh Shapiro’s cell-phone amendment, Ross’s amendment would make those violations a secondary, rather than primary offense.

I think that’s a fair compromise.  If you can’t talk on the cell phone without commiting the traffic offense of careless driving, then I don’t have any problem with the secondary offense.  It also includes a number of other items that are equally hazardous.  Shapiro’s bill was too draconian.  If I’m stuck in traffic, I don’t want to risk a fine because I call the office to tell them I’m running late.  Not much of a risk to the public for calls of that nature.

Bitter I attended the Bucks County Tea Party today, in Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania.  This is the historic park where Washington is reputed to have crossed the Continental Army across a partially frozen Delaware River in December of 1776, in order to attack a Hessian garrison at Trenton.  A great place for a Tea Party, and a great day for one too.  I’d estimate the crowd on the ground at about 500-600 people, and given that people were coming in and going out the while time, total attendance is probably more like 700 to 800 people.  Not bad for a tax protest in a quiet suburb outside of Philadelphia.

They had several speakers, and a few politicians were brave enough to speak to the crowd. One of them was Scott Petri, the local Republican State Representative. To be honest, I thought his speech was pretty inappropriate for the event. At a protest aimed at big, intrusive and tax hungry government, I’m not looking for a detailed speech on fiscal policy. I want to understand your philosophy, and I want you to signal to me that you get it.

Petri didn’t do that for me.  A bit about how the federal government is creating local budget problems by not paying their fair share for special education prompted one Tea Party goer to shout “Education is not a federal mandate!”  In another sentence he sought more funding for a the park museum.  Absolutely, this is part of the problem.  You can’t argue to cut other people’s pet projects, and then say hands off your own.  You shouldn’t argue that people in places remote to your local community pay for your community’s projects.

I understand the difficulties involved with budgeting, and finding money, especially in poorer communities, but a Tea Party isn’t the place for policy discussions.  It’s the place to show voters you understand them and their concerns, and to set yourself apart from the same old, same old. Scott Petri failed at that.

UPDATE: Dave Markowitz has pictures of the Philadelphia Tea Party on Independence Mall.  Looks like about the same size as ours.