Category: Pennsylvania

The Weekly Standard thinks Hillary may have provided John McCain the key to defeating Obama:

In a new Brookings study of Pennsylvania’s political demographics, William Frey and Ruy Teixeira identify this region, centered on Allentown, as key to the state’s political future. If Pennsylvania’s Northeast keeps trending Democratic, the state will become solidly blue. But if a Republican candidate can hold the line or make some modest gains with the region’s white working class voters, the picture looks very different. And as it turns out, the GOP may have a candidate who can do just that in John McCain. As Hillary Clinton’s campaign slow-marches to its unhappy end, she is offering lessons not only for how McCain can defeat Obama–she is pointing towards a possible bright future for the Republican brand.

The Republicans have lost a lot in Pennsylvania, largely due to the Bush version of Republicanism alienating the traditionally Republican Philadelphia suburbs, and making those voters look elsewhere.  That’s probably one reason I’m more sanguine about John McCain than most, is because I think the Republicans desperately need to make some gains in Pennsylvania, and McCain is probably the right kind of guy to appeal to voters in these key areas in the southeast.  It’s not so much that I love the Republican Party, and want it to dominate, but I sit just across the river from a shining example of what one party rule does to a state.  If Pennsylvania shifts solidly Democrat, if Ed Rendell is any indication of what is in long term store for us, we’re in a lot of trouble.  Taxes will keep going up and up, people will keep leaving, and  you can probably kiss Pennsylvania goodbye as a pro-gun state in a generation.  If it takes McCain coattails to reverse that trend, so be it.

HatTip to Instapundit

UPDATE: Check out this graphic in the Inquirer that shows how Obama failed.  It also shows that Ed Rendell had to carry near universal support in the Philadelphia area in order to win.  Obama failed to not only carry overwhelming support in the southeast, he failed to beat Hillary.

John Lott points to some evidence that Obama’s “bitter” comments did him no favors among gun owning Democrats.  Obama learned a hard lesson about Pennsylvania voters: It’s not like Illinois, where he could safely thumb his nose at downstate people from his posh 1.6 million dollar home on the South Side of Chicago, knowing full well they can’t outvote his urban constitutents.  Pennsylvanians can and do outvote Philadelphia.  Politics here is hazardous for the inexperienced, and Obama didn’t have what it takes to navigate the minefield.

So far what they are saying:

Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household, and they favored Clinton over Obama. Four in 10 had a gun owner in the household, and gun-owning households also went mostly for Clinton.

Bitter enough not to vote for you Barry-O!  Two fold message here: rural Pennsylvanians hate being condescended to, and AHSA’s endorsement isn’t worth elk piss (I don’t know what Elk piss smells like, but I’m guessing pretty bad.)

This is the first time that I can remember people paying so much attention to my state’s primary.  Usually by the time we come around, we’re just reaffirming what the rest of the country has already chosen for us.  In terms of primary politics, Pennsylvania has never mattered.  I’m glad to hear that the gambling industry has Hilly up by 7-10.  I think Obama is pretty much a lock in at this point unless he seriously bombs all the remaining states, which is a possibility.  A Hillary win will drag the fight to the convention, and if Hillary does manage to pull it out, it’ll be because of something shady that’ll piss a lot of Democratic faithful off.  That makes it less likely I have to worry about either of those two being president.