This is an interesting article on the top business that have been destroyed by the emergence of the smart phone. I have my doubts that PDAs were killed by Smart Phones so much as PDA’s became Smart Phones. Palm was destroyed because they failed to keep up. I think Research in Motion, who pioneered the Smart Phone with a truly awful product may not be far behind. Smart Phones probably will largely eat the MP3 player market, and the low end point and shoot market. That much makes sense.
But the GPS market? The PC market? Watches? Having once upon a time been a fairly serious hiker, my iPhone presents a serious impediment to being used as a GPS, namely that it won’t tolerate being dunked in water, rained on, smashed against a rock, or dropped. Those are important features for something going with you outdoors, and I’ve never seen a PDA that had a speaker loud enough, and mounting hardware good enough to do auto navigation effectively. That’s one function I’m looking for application specificity. What if I get a call while I’m navigating somewhere? As for watches, who wants to have to dig a Smart Phone out from under 10 layers of clothes during the winter just to see what you could easily see by turning your wrist? And the idea that Smart Phones having displaced PC is laughable. Until a smart phone can project two 1080p monitors side by side directly onto my retina, I’m pretty sure the PC has a future.
The fact that Gartner is quoted in this is really all you need to know. I don’t think Gartner has been right about any major computing trend, and I can’t believe people still pay them money to keep producing that drivel.