Apparently global warming may not increase hurricane frequency. I am not a climate scientist, so I don’t claim to be an expert, but I do have a pretty good grasp on science in general, and have a fair amount of knoweldge of complex systems, but most of the claims as to the effects of global warming have never passed the smell test. We do know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we know atmospheric levels of it are rising. We also know that computer models show more CO2 in the atmosphere leads to warmer temperatures. Are the computer models right? Maybe. But I’m skeptical that a complex system like climate can be predicted with even a modicum of certainty.
I work in the pharmaceutical industry, and we do a lot of complex systems modeling, particularly how ligands bond to proteins. In fact, what I do for a living is build and maintain supercomputer clusters so these types of calculations can be done. There have been many good scientists who claim that certain methods of doing this kind of modeling are the greatest thing to come along since sliced bread. People want to believe in what they are doing, even if it’s not really good science. I’ve seen too many people collectively buy into a lot of these fads to believe that consensus is always good science. It hasn’t been always in the pharmaceutical field. I’m skeptical of any claim that climate science is also not collectively prone to the same errors.
I’m not saying global warming isn’t happening, or it isn’t something to be concerned about. But I remain highly skeptical of people who claim to be able to model a complex system to such a degree as they can tell you global warming will lead to more droughts, rainfall, hurricanes, or mass extinctions.